Taiwan To Monitor Hu Jintao’s Visit To Japan Next Month

DOI 19 April 2008

TAIPEI TIMES (TAIWAN)—Taiwan will closely monitor Chinese leader Hu Jintao’s upcoming visit to Japan. President-elect Ma Ying-jeou’s request to visit Japan prior to his inauguration next month is unlikely to happen. In his report to the legislature, Representative Koh Se-kai said Taiwan would keep a close tab on Hu’s trip to Japan from 6 May to 11 May to ascertain whether the leaders mention Taiwan’s status during the visit. Koh, a leading authority on Japanese politics, said China has been asking Japan to sign a fourth communiqué; stating that Japan agrees Taiwan is part of the People’s Republic of China, which Tokyo has long refused to do. Since Japan and Taiwan severed formal ties more than 30 years ago, Japan has never stated they support the “one China” policy. The Japanese position is that they “acknowledge” and “respect” China’s position on the issue of Taiwan, Koh said. The representative, however, offered assurances that despite Japan’s own unstable political climate, Taiwan-Japan ties should continue to remain strong and friendly. Source: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2008/04/19/2003409691 (Reliability: 7)

Cambodia Presents Documents On ASEAN Charter’s Ratification To Secretariat

DOI 18 April 2008

ANTARA (JAKARTA)—Cambodian Ambassador to Indonesia Khem Bunneang on behalf of his government handed documents on his country's ratification of the ASEAN Charter to ASEAN Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan at the ASEAN Secretariat on 18 April. Cambodia is the sixth country that has ratified the ASEAN Charter after Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, Laos, Malaysia and Vietnam. Four other ASEAN member countries have yet to ratify the charter, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar and Thailand. Source: http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=3856 (Reliability: 7)

Comment: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) holds annual meeting to discuss issues relevant to the development of Southeast Asian countries. Singapore hosted the 13^th Annual ASEAN Summit from 18-22 November 2007.

Blocked Zimbabwean Arms Shipment Likley To Be Diverted to Maputo or Dar es Salaam

DOI 18 April 2008

REUTERS (JOHANNESBURG ) - A South African union has refused to unload arms (carrying nearly 3 million rounds of small arms and light weapons (SALW), about 3,500 mortars and mortar launchers, as well as 1,500 rockets for rocket-propelled grenades) from a Chinese ship destined for Zimbabwe, in a politically charged move challenging President Thabo Mbeki's handling of relations with the neighboring state. The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (SATAWU) said it would not unload the weapons in the port city of Durban because Mugabe's government might use them to crack down on opponents in the disputed election. Zimbabwe's response has been shrill, and the Chinese response was muted, deferring comment since 'they did not understand the situation.' Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3772113.ece (Reliability: 9)

Analysis: Despite a South African High Court ruling preventing the government from blocking the shipment, civil society society groups are likely to prevent the military cargo from making its way over land to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is likely to send the An Yue Jiang to another port such as Maputo (Mozambique) or Dar es Salaam (Tanzania). (Confidence: 7)

Update: DOI 19 April 2008

NYT (NEW YORK) -- The An Yu
e Jiang and her cargo of SALW set sail for Maputo. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/world/africa/19zimbabwe.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th (Reliability: 8)

Update 2: DOI 21 April 2008

ALLAFRICA.COM (CAPE TOWN) --Mozambiquean and Tanzanian governments have refused to allow the An Yue Jiang offload its cargo in their ports, Beeld (a South African paper) reported on Monday. The An Yue Jiang, was last headed up the south-west coast of Africa towards Angola, and South African union activists are attempting to stop the arms from being offloaded and delivered to President Robert Mugabe's government. Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/200804211124.html (Reliability 8)

US, Georgia Will Conduct Joint Military Drills Near Tbilisi In July 2008

DOI 18 April 2008

RIA NOVOSTI(TBILISI)–US and Georgian military forces will hold a joint-exercise, "Immediate Response 2008," near Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, in July 2008, according to the Georgian Defense Ministry. Around 2,000 personnel, mostly from the US but also from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine, will join Georgian troops in the exercises. The exercises will take place at several Georgian military sites including the Vaziani military base and the Poti naval base. Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080415/105155362.html. (Reliability: 6)

Analysis: It is highly likely this military exercise will cause Russia to escalate threats of supporting secessionist regions within Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia has been a delicate issue with the Russians because of its attempt to win a membership bid from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Before NATO denied Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP) on 3 April 2008, Russia threatened to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. While Russia was obviously threatened by the possibility of its southern neighbor joining NATO, it is almost certain Russia will feel far more threatened by joint US-Georgian military exercises on its door step. (Analytic Confidence: 9)

Algerian Ventures Sign $4.5 Billion PETCHEM Deals

DOI 14 April 2008

REUTERS (ALGIERS)-- According to APS news agency, Algeria's Sonatrach and Omani and Egyptian partners signed contracts with major construction companies on 14 April for two ammonia and urea projects worth a total of $4.5 billion. An Algerian-Omani joint venture called Al Aldjazairia Al Omania Lil Asmida signed an engineering, procurement and construction contract with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build a factory costing $2.4 billion at Arzew, 600 kilometres (373 miles) west of the capital Algiers. The joint venture between Sonatrach and Suhail Bahwan Group Holding (SBGH) of Oman has said the plant will produce 4,000 tonnes of ammonia and 7,000 tonnes of urea per day. Algerian officials (NFI) say that the plant is due to come onstream in three and a half years (late 2011). APS added that a joint venture between Sonatrach and Egypt's Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) signed an engineering and construction contract with Germany's Uhde, the plant engineering unit of ThyssenKrupp, also for an ammonia and urea plant at Arzew worth $2.16 billion. The joint venture, called Sorfert Algerie, plans to produce 4,400 tonnes a day of ammonia and 3,450 tonnes a day of urea. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL1476691620080414 (Reliability: 8)

Analysis: It is highly likely that Algeria is investing heavily in petrochemicals in order to diversify the range of products for export and get more value from its energy supplies. The Algerian state-owned energy group, Sonatrach has discovered four new oil and gas condensates this past week, bringing their total finds to five for the year. Algeria pumps about 1.4 million barrels of oil per day and exports 62 billion cubic metres of gas a year, mostly to Europe. The existence of new Algerian Petrochemical sites will likely be a target of interest for terrorist attacks. The Al-Qaida Branch of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has a heavy presence in Algeria and regularly attacks Algerian governmental interests. (Analytic Confidence: 8.5)

Egypt To Host Mideast "Mini-Summit" In May

DOI 12 April 2008

RIA NOVOSTI (CAIRO)-- According to Middle East News Agency (MENA), Egypt has officially confirmed that the Middle East 'mini-summit,' to be attended by the US president, will take place in late May in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The agency quoted Hossam Zaki, a spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, as saying that it will probably be held on the fringes of the International Economic Forum, which opens in the Egyptian resort town on May 18. In addition to the U.S. president, the summit may be also attended by Israeli, Palestinian, Egyptian presidents and the king of Jordan. The key issue on the agenda will be the continuation of peace talks between Israeli and Palestine authorities, which were launched last year at a summit in the United States. Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080411/104882695.html (Reliability: 6.5)

United Nations Mission In Kosovo: Serb Elections In Kosovo Illegal

DOI 17 April 2008

NEW KOSOVA REPORT (SWEDEN)—According to United Nations Mission in Kosovo's (UNMIK) spokesperson Aleksandar Ivanko, Serb elections should not be held in Kosovo on 11 May 2008. According to Ivanko, United Nations (UN) Administrator Joachim Rücker is preparing a short answer for Serbia's Government, which insists that the Serb election should be held in the State of Kosovo. UN officials maintain that holding Serb elections in Kosovo violates resolution 1244, which put Kosovo under interim UN administration in 1999. Source: http://www.newkosovareport.com/20080417885/Politics/UNMIK-serb-elections-in-Kosovo-illegal.html (Reliability: 6.5)

Comment: Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in February 2008, and three dozen countries recognize Kosovo’s independence. Serbia’s decision to hold local elections in Kosovo indicates that Serbia ignores UN objections and still considers Kosovo a part of Serbia.

Tight Security For Olympic Torch In China-Friendly Pakistan, India Next

DOI 16 April 2008

CBC (ISLAMABAD)—Authorities in Pakistan are taking no chances as the country hosts the latest leg of the Olympic torch relay Wednesday, 16 April 2008 lining the streets of the capital, Islamabad, with thousands of police and sniffer dogs. Pakistan is one of China’s closest international allies and both countries want to make sure the progress of the torch is not disrupted by pro-Tibet rallies of the type seen earlier in Europe and the United States. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf stated no disruptions to the torch’s progress though his country would be allowed. The Olympic Torch is due in India on Thursday, 17 April 2008. Source: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/04/16/torch-pakistan.html (Reliability: 8)

India Set To Do Business With Nepal Maoists

DOI 16 April 2008

TIMES OF INDIA (NEW DELHI)—Senior government sources said that India’s ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shankar Mukherjee was in touch with the Maoists who on Tuesday 15 April, 2008 continued their winning spree in Nepal’s Assembly elections, adding that “we are ready to sit with them”. India can hope to derive benefit from the end of status quo since the monarchy, for long, had been hostile to India’s interests. To the extent the mandate for the Maoists can be interpreted as a “vote against Kathmandu”, India can expect fresh opportunities to repair ties which have frequently been strained by mutual suspicions. Unnamed sources state that the election in Nepal had helped achieve two goals that India was keen on – democratization and mainstreaming of Maoists. Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/India_set_to_do_business_with_Nepal_Maoists/articleshow/2954828.cms
(Reliability: 7.5)

Comment: The final results of the Nepal’s Constituent Assembly election are still unknown. According to the New York Times, no party was expected to win by a landslide; however, the Maoists are doing much better than expected. As of 15 April 2008, the Maoists have won 108 out of 196 directly elected legislative seats.

MDC Sets Conditions For Runoff In Zimbabwe

DOI 15 April 2008

BBC (LONDON)--Reversing an earlier reversal not to participate in a run-off election, a spokesman for Morgan Tsvangirai (Movement for Democratic Change) stated that MDC would participate in a run-off if certain conditions were met: that South African Development Community representatives are present in every polling station. WARNING: Video contains disturbing footage: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7349669.stm. (Reliability: 8)

Paraguay Presidential Race: Former Bishop Maintains Lead

DOI 15 April 2008

MERCOPRESS (MONTEVIDEO)--Former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo is still the front-runner in the 20 April presidential election in Paraguay, but his lead over rival candidates has narrowed. Lugo leads with 34.5% of vote intention followed by retired Army general Lino Oviedo with 28.9% and ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar with 28.5%. These percentages are based on 65% electoral roll participation, but if the turnout falls to 40%, Ms Ovelar comes ahead with 34.1% followed by Lugo’s, 31.4% and Oviedo, 27.5%. Lugo draws support from a coalition of center and center left political, grass root and social groupings while Ms Ovelar responds to the Colorado Party of President Nicanor Duarte, a party which has ruled and dominated Paraguayan politics for over six decades, under authoritarian and democratic governments. Source: http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=13156&formato=HTML (Reliability 7.5)

Analysis: Voter participation in the 2003 election was 65%. It is likely that voter turnout will be similar, which would be favorable to Lugo. Since the presidential election does not include a run-off, Lugo is likely to face difficulties with accumulating solid support in congress, preventing him from making any drastic leftist changes. While sympathetic to Chavez and other leftist Latin American leaders, Lugo has tried to distance himself from their overall populist movements (likely a political move), and has opted to focus on internal Paraguayan social issues. (Confidence: 6)

Delayed Ivorian Election Announced, Post-Election Return To Hostilities Likely

DOI 14 April 2008

UN NEWS (NEW YORK) – The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) praised the announcement of much delayed presidential elections on 30 November 2008, as "one of the greatest achievements in the Ivorian peace process since the outbreak of the crisis more than four years ago." Côte d'Ivoire became divided in 2002 between the Government-controlled south and the rebel Forces Nouvelles-held north, but last year's Ouagadougou Peace Agreement paved the way for an end to the conflict and included a provision calling for free and fair elections to be held. Presidential polls were to be held as far back as 2005, but have been delayed several times. Despite the good news, a fresh UN Security Council report cites credible information that both sides have violated the arms purchasing, border control, and military training provisions of the 2004 Council Resolution. Source: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=26324&Cr=ivoire&Cr1= (Reliability: 9)

Analysis: The degree to which the government and rebels have been quietly, but not invisibly, preparing for further hostilities suggest that the peace is very fragile. Under these conditions, and where one or the other side is likely to take umbrage at the outcome of the election, a return to open hostility is likely. The continued presence of UNOCI may provide a deterrent effect initially, until 30 November 2008, but, given UNOCI's inability to monitor or adequately enforce the arms embargo, their presence will be insufficient to prevent violence if either party chooses it. (Confidence: 5)

Zimbabwe Opposition Leader Flees To Botswana

DOI 14 April 2008

THE NATION (NAIROBI)-- Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has fled to neighbouring Botswana fearing for his life as the presidential election standoff reached its third week Monday. Mr Tsvangirai left volatile Zimbabwe last week to lobby regional leaders ahead of a crisis meeting on Saturday. Mr Tsvangirai did not return to Zimbabwe after the summit and today the government owned Botswana Daily News said he was on an "indefinite stay in the neighbouring country."

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which beat Mr Mugabe's ruling Zanu PF in parallel parliamentary elections says it believes the lives of its leaders are danger amid signs that the ruling party has embarked on a violent campaign to regain its power. Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200804141860.html (Reliability:9)

Mugabe Consolidates Power On Streets & In Chambers

DOI 15 April 2008

REUTERS (HARARE)--Three setbacks, failed protests, a recount and runoff, and regional soft-pedaling, make further gains for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) highly unlikely.

Mugabe's loyal police and security forces fanned out over the country, concentrating on MDC areas in anticipation of protests. The protests did not materialize, likely on account of the regime's brutal 2007 crackdown on MDC protesters. The initiative is clearly back on Mugabe's side, where it is very likely to stay. Mugabe is maneuvering to recount key districts in the Parliamentary vote, and is planning a Presidential run-off election, which MDC has rejected, claiming it has won outright. Mugabe is highly likely to steal both votes.

Fearing that instability in Zimbabwe could spill over the borders, members of the South African Development Community (SADC) convened a crisis meeting over the weekend, and hoped to broker a resolution between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. Mugabe did not attend, and, despite statements urging a peaceful settlement of the crisis, the meeting did not produce a uniform policy.

The key regional player, South Africa, continues to sit on the fence. Thabo Mbeki, South African President, has stated that there 'is no post-election crisis in Zimbabwe.' His rival within the ruling African National Congress (ANC), Jacob Zuma, held crisis talks with Tsvangirai representatives last week, and the ANC National Committee stated that the situation in Zimbabwe was 'dire.'
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSWEB159520080415?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0 (Reliability: 8)

Comment: While South Africa appears to be sending 'mixed messages,' they are consistent with South Africa's policy of being a 'neutral mediator' for its neighbor's troubles. South Africa's adoption of the mediator role also suggests that South Africa is unsure which is worse: an unstable Zimbabwe under Mugabe, or an unstable Zimbabwe under Tsvangirai, who would have a very tenuous grasp over the security and intelligence services. Prior to the election, Mugabe also threated a return to bush war if he lost.