REUTERS (HARARE)--Three setbacks, failed protests, a recount and runoff, and regional soft-pedaling, make further gains for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) highly unlikely.
Mugabe's loyal police and security forces fanned out over the country, concentrating on MDC areas in anticipation of protests. The protests did not materialize, likely on account of the regime's brutal 2007 crackdown on MDC protesters. The initiative is
Fearing that instability in Zimbabwe could spill over the borders, members of the South African Development Community (SADC) convened a crisis meeting over the weekend, and hoped to broker a resolution between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. Mugabe did not attend, and, despite statements urging a peaceful settlement of the crisis, the meeting did not produce a uniform policy.
The key regional player, South Africa, continues to sit on the fence. Thabo Mbeki, South African President, has stated that there 'is no post-election crisis in Zimbabwe.' His rival within the ruling African National Congress (ANC), Jacob Zuma, held crisis talks with Tsvangirai representatives last week, and the ANC National Committee stated that the situation in Zimbabwe was 'dire.'
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSWEB159520080415?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0 (Reliability: 8)
Comment: While South Africa appears to be sending 'mixed messages,' they are consistent with South Africa's policy of being a 'neutral mediator' for its neighbor's troubles. South Africa's adoption of the mediator role also suggests that South Africa is unsure which is worse: an unstable Zimbabwe under Mugabe, or an unstable Zimbabwe under Tsvangirai, who would have a very tenuous grasp over the security and intelligence services. Prior to the election, Mugabe also threated a return to bush war if he lost.
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