UN NEWS (NEW YORK) – The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) praised the announcement of much delayed presidential elections on 30 November 2008, as "one of the greatest achievements in the Ivorian peace process since the outbreak of the crisis more than four years ago."
Analysis: The degree to which the government and rebels have been quietly, but not invisibly, preparing for further hostilities suggest that the peace is very fragile. Under these conditions, and where one or the other side is likely to take umbrage at the outcome of the election, a return to open hostility is likely. The continued presence of UNOCI may provide a deterrent effect initially, until 30 November 2008, but, given UNOCI's inability to monitor or adequately enforce the arms embargo, their presence will be insufficient to prevent violence if either party chooses it. (Confidence: 5)
No comments:
Post a Comment