15 April 2008

Delayed Ivorian Election Announced, Post-Election Return To Hostilities Likely

DOI 14 April 2008

UN NEWS (NEW YORK) – The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) praised the announcement of much delayed presidential elections on 30 November 2008, as "one of the greatest
achievements in the Ivorian peace process since the outbreak of the crisis more than four years ago." Côte d'Ivoire became divided in 2002 between the Government-controlled south and the rebel Forces Nouvelles-held north, but last year's Ouagadougou Peace Agreement paved the way for an end to the conflict and included a provision calling for free and fair elections to be held. Presidential polls were to be held as far back as 2005, but have been delayed several times. Despite the good news, a fresh UN Security Council report cites credible information that both sides have violated the arms purchasing, border control, and military training provisions of the 2004 Council Resolution. Source: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=26324&Cr=ivoire&Cr1= (Reliability: 9)

Analysis: The degree to which the government and rebels have been quietly, but not invisibly, preparing for further hostilities suggest that the peace is very fragile. Under these conditions, and where one or the other side is likely to take umbrage at the outcome of the election, a return to open hostility is likely. The continued presence of UNOCI may provide a deterrent effect initially, until 30 November 2008, but, given UNOCI's inability to monitor or adequately enforce the arms embargo, their presence will be insufficient to prevent violence if either party chooses it. (Confidence: 5)


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