Formal China-Dalai Lama Talks Imminent

DOI 08 May 2008

ABC (AUSTRALIA)--Last weekend's informal meeting between representatives of the Chinese Government and the Dalai Lama appear to have paved the way for formal talks. According to a statement from the Dalai Lama's envoy, Lodi Gyari, the governments will set a date soon for a seventh round of official negotiations. "Despite major differences on important issues, each side made concrete proposals which can be part of the future agenda," the statement said. Exile groups say the Chinese government killed 203 Tibetans in the recent crackdown there. The Chinese Government says Tibetan rioters killed 21 people. Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/08/2239516.htm?section=world (Reliability: 7)

Security Council To Hear Zimbabwean Opposition Complaint This Week, Sanctions Motion Likely

DOI 28 April 2008

SOUTH AFRICAN PRESS ASSOCIATION (HARARE)--Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Secretary-General Tendai Biti will take MDC's claim of victory in last month's election over President Robert Mugabe to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) this week (likely Wednesday morning). Biti will almost certainly say that MDC will not participate in an election runoff, according to MDC sources (NFI); as well as request a UN Special Envoy to assist the South African Development Community (SADC) to resolve the increasingly violent issue. Source: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/africa/news/article_1402162.php/Zimbabwe_opposition_to_brief_UN_Security_Council__2nd_Roundup

Analysis: The SADC region is hardening it stance to Mugabe following China's recall of the arms ship AnYue Jin. Last week US Special envoy for Africa, Jendayi Fraser, went on the record that MDC won the election, and in favor of arms sanctions against Zimbabwe, which was echoed by the UK. Despite increasing public pressure to stop supporting Mugabe's regime, China (UNSC Permanent Member, and primary Zimbabwean arms supplier) and South Africa (UNSC President - April) are unlikely to allow an arms embargo to pass. (Analytic Confidence: 6)

'Mugabe's Tsunami' of Refugees Flees Into South Africa

DOI 21 April 08

NEW YORK TIMES (NEW YORK) - Over 1,000 Zimbabwean refugees per day are fleeing political violence, 'torture camps,' and politically-manipulated food shortages in opposition areas into South Africa. Despite increased border patrolling, refugees are largely able to break through and find shelter with other Zimbabwean emigrants in Northern Province, who tended to be migrant workers. Now many are women with children seeking food and physical security. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) claims that 400 supporters had been arrested, 500 attacked, 10 killed and 3,000 families displaced. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/world/africa/21zimbabwe.html?ref=africa (Reliability: 8)

Sudan Sends Delegation To Discuss Britain Offer of Darfur Conference

DOI 19 April 2008

SUDAN TIMES (KHARTOUM)— A Sudanese high level delegation will visit London by the end of the month to hold talks with the British officials over Darfur peace process. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on April 12 he was in contact with the Sudanese government and rebel groups to host peace talks to end the five year crisis in Darfur. The Sudanese Foreign minister Deng Alor flanked by the presidential advisor Mustfa Osman Ismail will pay a visit to the British capital carrying a written message from President Omar Bashir, the British Prime Minister Cordon Brown. The two-day visit will take place on 29-30 April. Source: http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article26818 (Reliability: 7.5)

Analysis: It is highly likely that the opposing rebel groups responsible for the humanitarian crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan will not recognize any agreements that come out of a Darfur Conference in the United Kingdom. According to the Sudan Times, some rebel groups have already ignored Britain's offer. The rebel reaction to a conference not involving the rebel groups will likely mirror that of the Dakar Agreement signed by the Presidents of Chad and Sudan on 13 March 2008. (Analytic Confidence: 8)

Blocked Zimbabwean Arms Shipment Likley To Be Diverted to Maputo or Dar es Salaam

DOI 18 April 2008

REUTERS (JOHANNESBURG ) - A South African union has refused to unload arms (carrying nearly 3 million rounds of small arms and light weapons (SALW), about 3,500 mortars and mortar launchers, as well as 1,500 rockets for rocket-propelled grenades) from a Chinese ship destined for Zimbabwe, in a politically charged move challenging President Thabo Mbeki's handling of relations with the neighboring state. The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (SATAWU) said it would not unload the weapons in the port city of Durban because Mugabe's government might use them to crack down on opponents in the disputed election. Zimbabwe's response has been shrill, and the Chinese response was muted, deferring comment since 'they did not understand the situation.' Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3772113.ece (Reliability: 9)

Analysis: Despite a South African High Court ruling preventing the government from blocking the shipment, civil society society groups are likely to prevent the military cargo from making its way over land to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is likely to send the An Yue Jiang to another port such as Maputo (Mozambique) or Dar es Salaam (Tanzania). (Confidence: 7)

Update: DOI 19 April 2008

NYT (NEW YORK) -- The An Yu
e Jiang and her cargo of SALW set sail for Maputo. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/world/africa/19zimbabwe.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th (Reliability: 8)

Update 2: DOI 21 April 2008

ALLAFRICA.COM (CAPE TOWN) --Mozambiquean and Tanzanian governments have refused to allow the An Yue Jiang offload its cargo in their ports, Beeld (a South African paper) reported on Monday. The An Yue Jiang, was last headed up the south-west coast of Africa towards Angola, and South African union activists are attempting to stop the arms from being offloaded and delivered to President Robert Mugabe's government. Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/200804211124.html (Reliability 8)

Delayed Ivorian Election Announced, Post-Election Return To Hostilities Likely

DOI 14 April 2008

UN NEWS (NEW YORK) – The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) praised the announcement of much delayed presidential elections on 30 November 2008, as "one of the greatest achievements in the Ivorian peace process since the outbreak of the crisis more than four years ago." Côte d'Ivoire became divided in 2002 between the Government-controlled south and the rebel Forces Nouvelles-held north, but last year's Ouagadougou Peace Agreement paved the way for an end to the conflict and included a provision calling for free and fair elections to be held. Presidential polls were to be held as far back as 2005, but have been delayed several times. Despite the good news, a fresh UN Security Council report cites credible information that both sides have violated the arms purchasing, border control, and military training provisions of the 2004 Council Resolution. Source: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=26324&Cr=ivoire&Cr1= (Reliability: 9)

Analysis: The degree to which the government and rebels have been quietly, but not invisibly, preparing for further hostilities suggest that the peace is very fragile. Under these conditions, and where one or the other side is likely to take umbrage at the outcome of the election, a return to open hostility is likely. The continued presence of UNOCI may provide a deterrent effect initially, until 30 November 2008, but, given UNOCI's inability to monitor or adequately enforce the arms embargo, their presence will be insufficient to prevent violence if either party chooses it. (Confidence: 5)

Zimbabwe Opposition Leader Flees To Botswana

DOI 14 April 2008

THE NATION (NAIROBI)-- Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has fled to neighbouring Botswana fearing for his life as the presidential election standoff reached its third week Monday. Mr Tsvangirai left volatile Zimbabwe last week to lobby regional leaders ahead of a crisis meeting on Saturday. Mr Tsvangirai did not return to Zimbabwe after the summit and today the government owned Botswana Daily News said he was on an "indefinite stay in the neighbouring country."

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which beat Mr Mugabe's ruling Zanu PF in parallel parliamentary elections says it believes the lives of its leaders are danger amid signs that the ruling party has embarked on a violent campaign to regain its power. Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200804141860.html (Reliability:9)

Mugabe Consolidates Power On Streets & In Chambers

DOI 15 April 2008

REUTERS (HARARE)--Three setbacks, failed protests, a recount and runoff, and regional soft-pedaling, make further gains for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) highly unlikely.

Mugabe's loyal police and security forces fanned out over the country, concentrating on MDC areas in anticipation of protests. The protests did not materialize, likely on account of the regime's brutal 2007 crackdown on MDC protesters. The initiative is clearly back on Mugabe's side, where it is very likely to stay. Mugabe is maneuvering to recount key districts in the Parliamentary vote, and is planning a Presidential run-off election, which MDC has rejected, claiming it has won outright. Mugabe is highly likely to steal both votes.

Fearing that instability in Zimbabwe could spill over the borders, members of the South African Development Community (SADC) convened a crisis meeting over the weekend, and hoped to broker a resolution between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. Mugabe did not attend, and, despite statements urging a peaceful settlement of the crisis, the meeting did not produce a uniform policy.

The key regional player, South Africa, continues to sit on the fence. Thabo Mbeki, South African President, has stated that there 'is no post-election crisis in Zimbabwe.' His rival within the ruling African National Congress (ANC), Jacob Zuma, held crisis talks with Tsvangirai representatives last week, and the ANC National Committee stated that the situation in Zimbabwe was 'dire.'
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSWEB159520080415?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0 (Reliability: 8)

Comment: While South Africa appears to be sending 'mixed messages,' they are consistent with South Africa's policy of being a 'neutral mediator' for its neighbor's troubles. South Africa's adoption of the mediator role also suggests that South Africa is unsure which is worse: an unstable Zimbabwe under Mugabe, or an unstable Zimbabwe under Tsvangirai, who would have a very tenuous grasp over the security and intelligence services. Prior to the election, Mugabe also threated a return to bush war if he lost.

Kenya To Spend Millions For AIDS Treatment In 2009

DOI 06 April 2008

AFP (NAIROBI) — According to the Kenyan Health Ministry, Kenya will spend $61.4 million in 2009 on antiretroviral (ARV) therapy for a surge of new HIV/AIDS patients in the country. Some 190,000 patients are currently on ARV treatment, with a monthly increase of 5,000 new patients, according to the ministry. HIV/AIDS patients are expected to increase by 60,000; making an approximate total of 250,000 HIV/AIDS clients for 2009. The funds will be provided by the government, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and foreign charities and foundations. Kenya's official AIDS prevalence rate is 5.1 percent, down from 5.9 percent in 2005. Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080406/hl_afp/healthkenyaaids (Reliability: 8)

Comment: In 2003, President George W. Bush announced the Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, a five-year, $15 billion U.S. Government initiative that aims to provide treatment and care to at least 12 million HIV/AIDS infected individuals, and provide prevention to at least 7 million individuals. Under the Emergency Plan, Kenya received nearly $92.5 million in Fiscal Year (FY) 2004, more than $142.9 million in FY 2005, approximately $208.3 million in FY 2006 and approximately $368.1 million in FY 2007 to support comprehensive HIV/AIDS prevention, treatment and care programs. Source: http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/global_health/aids/Countries/africa/kenya.html

Zimbabwe Election Results Unlikely To Be Released

DOI 09 April 2008

SW RADIO AFRICA (LONDON)--Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe continues to exert complete political control over the Zimbabwean electoral and legal processes. Eleven days after ZANU-PF (Zimbabwe African National Unity-Patriotic Front) narrowly and surprisingly lost their thirty year stranglehold on Parliament, the Presidential vote results remain under wraps. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), confident that Morgan Tsvangirai won the vote, sued the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission's (ZEC) for results on 5 April 08. ZEC's legal representative, George Chikumbirike, argued before the High Court that releasing the Presidential vote results would be 'dangerous.' The presiding judge, Tendai Uchena, deferred to Mugabe by reserving judgement until the 14 April 08. Meanwhile Harare correspondent Simon Muchemwa reported that ZEC officials started dismantling the election command centre at on Tuesday, and that Zimbabwe Intelligence Service officials replaced ZEC staffers, all clear signs that the results will probably never be announced. Source:
http://www.swradioafrica.com/news090408/dnagerous090408.htm (Reliability: 8)

Analysis: Mugabe is highly unlikely to give up office, and is highly likely to use his security forces to repress opposition, as he has done previously. Despite mounting regional pressure to release the vote results, from South Africa, Zambia, and Mozambique; Mugabe is likely to rig a runoff election in his favor and accept further international isolation and economic impoverishment. (Analytic Confidence: 8)