Zimbabwe Election Results Unlikely To Be Released

DOI 09 April 2008

SW RADIO AFRICA (LONDON)--Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe continues to exert complete political control over the Zimbabwean electoral and legal processes. Eleven days after ZANU-PF (Zimbabwe African National Unity-Patriotic Front) narrowly and surprisingly lost their thirty year stranglehold on Parliament, the Presidential vote results remain under wraps. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), confident that Morgan Tsvangirai won the vote, sued the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission's (ZEC) for results on 5 April 08. ZEC's legal representative, George Chikumbirike, argued before the High Court that releasing the Presidential vote results would be 'dangerous.' The presiding judge, Tendai Uchena, deferred to Mugabe by reserving judgement until the 14 April 08. Meanwhile Harare correspondent Simon Muchemwa reported that ZEC officials started dismantling the election command centre at on Tuesday, and that Zimbabwe Intelligence Service officials replaced ZEC staffers, all clear signs that the results will probably never be announced. Source:
http://www.swradioafrica.com/news090408/dnagerous090408.htm (Reliability: 8)

Analysis: Mugabe is highly unlikely to give up office, and is highly likely to use his security forces to repress opposition, as he has done previously. Despite mounting regional pressure to release the vote results, from South Africa, Zambia, and Mozambique; Mugabe is likely to rig a runoff election in his favor and accept further international isolation and economic impoverishment. (Analytic Confidence: 8)