Bolivia Mayors Cling To Referendums

DOI 08 April 2008

PRENSA LATINA (COCHABAMBA)—After four hours of talking with the Bolivian Catholic Church, five opposition mayors insisted on holding the projected autonomous referendums, rejected by the National Electoral Court for their unlawful nature. Santa Cruz mayor Ruben Costas praised the bishops' initiative to bring them closer to the executive, but ratified the consultation on May 4. He said he will attend a new round of talks with the government only after the referendum, and "when conditions are created". On Monday, President Evo Morales called for straightforward dialog to solve the political crisis the country is facing. Source: http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID={93C155C9-201D-45C8-9E70-97ED58764BD9}&language=EN (Reliability: 7.5)

Analysis: The Supreme Court has ruled that both the nation-wide referendum and the localized referendums are unconstitutional. However, despite these rulings, the mayors anticipate the votes will occur. While Morales has stated that he does not intend to use military force in the breakaway provinces, it is likely he will change his stance if the localized referendums actually take place. Morales will likely feel increased pressure from his poor, highland, and indigenous constituencies, as well as from Argentina and Brazil, Bolivia's main natural gas customers—who have expressed anxiety about Bolivian gas production as winter approaches. (Analytic Confidence: 7.5)