Bolivia Referendum Exposes Rift Between Rich, Poor

DOI 7 May 2008

REUTERS (SANTA CRUZ)-The cry for autonomy is strong in Bolivia's wealthy Santa Cruz province, but the poorest people here see the movement as a tactic by the rich to undercut leftist President Evo Morales. Santa Cruz voted for autonomy from the central government on Sunday in an unprecedented referendum widely seen as a rejection of Morales' policies and a challenge to his rule. A champion of indigenous rights, land reform and state control of the economy, Morales took power in 2006 and has the support of poor indigenous groups of the Andes, but he is increasingly unpopular in Bolivia's lush eastern lowlands.
Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN0748671220080507
(Reliability: 8)

Guyana Plans To Join South American Defense

DOI 2 May 2008

PRENSA LATINA (GEORGETOWN)-The Government of Guyana confirmed its intention to join the South American Defense Council, promoted by Brazil.

The head of the presidential secretariat Roger Luncheon told journalists that the initiative does not envisage a military coalition, but a mechanism to strengthen the struggle for the defense of countries of the area. This is not a military alliance, but a tool to handle a variety of issues regarding security, he said.

Luncheon announced that the Guyanese government accepted an invitation from Brazil to attend the conference of South American nations scheduled for May 23.
Source: http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7BD2058961-C3EE-495F-9194-C380DF1A8B63%7D)&language=EN
(Reliability: 6)

15 Special Police Units To Provide World Summit Security

DOI 24 April 2008

ANDINA (LIMA)--Over fifteen special police units of the Peruvian National Police (PNP) will ensure security and public order across the country before, during, and after the world summits. Some of the Special Police Units are the APEC General Command, the Police Operations Executive Directorate (DIREOP), the Anti Terrorism Directorate (DIRCOTE), Crime Investigation Directorate (DIRINCRI) and the Special Operations Directorate (DIROES), among others. Local authorities and a special team of police officers have been preparing for two years to host the world summits. Police units have looked to previous APEC and EU-LAC host countries for advice on security matters. PNP’s general director, Octavio Salazar, pointed out that 94 thousand 500 police officers will be working night and day to provide security during the major events. Source: http://www.livinginperu.com/news-6254-apec-peru-2008-apec-eu-lac-peru-2008-summits-daily-update
(Reliability: 8)

Paraguay Presidential Race: Former Bishop Maintains Lead

DOI 15 April 2008

MERCOPRESS (MONTEVIDEO)--Former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo is still the front-runner in the 20 April presidential election in Paraguay, but his lead over rival candidates has narrowed. Lugo leads with 34.5% of vote intention followed by retired Army general Lino Oviedo with 28.9% and ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar with 28.5%. These percentages are based on 65% electoral roll participation, but if the turnout falls to 40%, Ms Ovelar comes ahead with 34.1% followed by Lugo’s, 31.4% and Oviedo, 27.5%. Lugo draws support from a coalition of center and center left political, grass root and social groupings while Ms Ovelar responds to the Colorado Party of President Nicanor Duarte, a party which has ruled and dominated Paraguayan politics for over six decades, under authoritarian and democratic governments. Source: http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=13156&formato=HTML (Reliability 7.5)

Analysis: Voter participation in the 2003 election was 65%. It is likely that voter turnout will be similar, which would be favorable to Lugo. Since the presidential election does not include a run-off, Lugo is likely to face difficulties with accumulating solid support in congress, preventing him from making any drastic leftist changes. While sympathetic to Chavez and other leftist Latin American leaders, Lugo has tried to distance himself from their overall populist movements (likely a political move), and has opted to focus on internal Paraguayan social issues. (Confidence: 6)

Bolivia Mayors Cling To Referendums

DOI 08 April 2008

PRENSA LATINA (COCHABAMBA)—After four hours of talking with the Bolivian Catholic Church, five opposition mayors insisted on holding the projected autonomous referendums, rejected by the National Electoral Court for their unlawful nature. Santa Cruz mayor Ruben Costas praised the bishops' initiative to bring them closer to the executive, but ratified the consultation on May 4. He said he will attend a new round of talks with the government only after the referendum, and "when conditions are created". On Monday, President Evo Morales called for straightforward dialog to solve the political crisis the country is facing. Source: http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID={93C155C9-201D-45C8-9E70-97ED58764BD9}&language=EN (Reliability: 7.5)

Analysis: The Supreme Court has ruled that both the nation-wide referendum and the localized referendums are unconstitutional. However, despite these rulings, the mayors anticipate the votes will occur. While Morales has stated that he does not intend to use military force in the breakaway provinces, it is likely he will change his stance if the localized referendums actually take place. Morales will likely feel increased pressure from his poor, highland, and indigenous constituencies, as well as from Argentina and Brazil, Bolivia's main natural gas customers—who have expressed anxiety about Bolivian gas production as winter approaches. (Analytic Confidence: 7.5)