Strikes and Rebel Actions Cut Nigerian Crude Output By Nearly 50%, Record Hikes Almost Certain, Price Relief Unlikley In 2008

DOI 28 April 2008

REUTERS (LONDON) - Exxon Mobil has shut nearly all its Nigerian oil production, totaling around 770,000 barrels per day (bpd), due to a workers' strike. This represents nearly 40 % of total Nigerian output, and comes after a series of attacks this month by militants in the Niger Delta which has shut-in an additional 169,000 bpd from Royal Dutch Shell (8% Nigerian output). These problems in Nigeria, the world's eighth-biggest oil exporter, helped push oil prices to a record high near $120 a barrel on Monday. SOURCE: http://africa.reuters.com/currencies/news/usnBAN843223.html

Analysis: Problems in the Niger Delta are a long way from being resolved, and labour and rebel groups seem to hold the initiative. The consensus from the International Energy Forum meeting in Rome on 20 April 2008 was that tight supply conditions (and hence inflationary pressures on most world economies) would persist for the remainder of 2008. (Analytic Confidence: 8)

15 Special Police Units To Provide World Summit Security

DOI 24 April 2008

ANDINA (LIMA)--Over fifteen special police units of the Peruvian National Police (PNP) will ensure security and public order across the country before, during, and after the world summits. Some of the Special Police Units are the APEC General Command, the Police Operations Executive Directorate (DIREOP), the Anti Terrorism Directorate (DIRCOTE), Crime Investigation Directorate (DIRINCRI) and the Special Operations Directorate (DIROES), among others. Local authorities and a special team of police officers have been preparing for two years to host the world summits. Police units have looked to previous APEC and EU-LAC host countries for advice on security matters. PNP’s general director, Octavio Salazar, pointed out that 94 thousand 500 police officers will be working night and day to provide security during the major events. Source: http://www.livinginperu.com/news-6254-apec-peru-2008-apec-eu-lac-peru-2008-summits-daily-update
(Reliability: 8)

Egypt Could Become Major Gold Producer In Next Decade

DOI 24 April 2008

RIA NOVOSTI (CAIRO)- Egypt could become a leading gold producer within the next decade following the discovery of large reserves in the country's Eastern Desert, the Le Progres Egyptian newspaper said Monday, April 21. Proven reserves at the Wadi Hudain deposit alone exceed 50 million ounces, worth around $50 billion. Amgad Ghoneim, a senior ministry official, said under a development program gold output should reach 30 metric tons annually in the next ten years. "At the first stage in the initial two years we will produce three metric tons near Hemesh and seven metric tons near al-Sukari," Ghoneim said, adding that the amount would be increased to 18 metric tons in the future. Source: http://mnweekly.ru/world/20080424/55325518.html (Reliability: 5.5)

Comment: According to Ghoneim, Gold production will depend on the number of companies working in the country. Currently, two foreign companies (NFI) are active in the exploration of the gold, while nine other companies are active in the process (NFI).

Ethiopia Launches Commodities Exchange

DOI 24 April 2008

AFP (ADDIS ABABA) — Ethiopia launched a commodities exchange market, aimed at boosting fair trade and stabilizing its food market on 24 April. Initial trading on the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange was limited to maize and haricot beans on the 24th, but is set to expand to coffee, sesame, teff (a staple grain in Ethiopia) and wheat. Ethiopian Finance Minister Mekonnen Manyazewal said the exchange represented "a new era" that would level the playing field for smaller farmers. Ethiopia earned over one billion dollars in the past nine months from exports of coffee, cereals, spices and other agricultural products. Source: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hx9JtHoqXrmt70jvUsQ86-S1e6vA (Reliability: 8.5)

Comment: Ethiopia is among Africa's least urbanized countries, and three-quarters of the country's 78 million people are dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. While a small number of traders will control trade on the exchange initially, the government is hoping the biggest beneficiaries are Ethiopia's farmers.

Ukraine Speeds Preparations Before Co-hosting Euro 2012

DOI: 22 April 2008

REUTERS (KIEV)–Ukraine will co-host Euro 2012, the European Soccer Championships, with Poland in April 2012. Ukraine is under pressure to speed up preparations for the championships ahead of a Union of European Football Association (UEFA) executive board meeting in June 2008. The UEDA expects Ukraine to resolve problems over the construction and upgrade of stadiums, accommodation, airport, railways, and road transportation. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who is touring cities due to host matches, Donetsk, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kiev, singled out airports as the most critical issue and urged ministers to reach agreements with local authorities to improve them. Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldFootballNews/idUKL2287761820080422. (Source Reliability: 9)

Analysis: It is likely President Yushchenko is vigorously preparing Ukraine for Euro 2012 because he sees it as an opportunity to demonstrate Ukraine's potential to integrate into the west. If Ukraine successfully co-hosts these games it is likely to encourage both Ukrainians and western Europe to support Ukrainian membership in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). (Analytic Confidence: 7)

Palestinian Conference To Raise USD 600 Million For Gaza

DOI 23 April 2008

REUTERS (RAMALLAH)-A Palestinian hosted investment conference hopes to raise USD 600 million for the Gaza Strip. The Palestine Investment Conference opens in the West Bank city of Bethlehem 21-23 May 2008. Hassan Abu Libdeh, chief executive officer of the conference, stated that he expects to raise USD 1.5 billion; USD 600 million would be designated for the Gaza Strip while the other USD 900 million would be spent on projects in the occupied West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem. The conference is part of efforts to boost the Palestinian economy as Palestinians take part in US-backed peace talks with Israel. Abu Libdeh said many of the planned "mega-projects" the conference hopes to promote would be slated for the Gaza Strip and 100 investors from the territory would attend the gathering. Under pressure from the United States, which wants to see a deal on Palestinian statehood by year's end, Israel said this week it would ease access to Bethlehem for the conference. Abu Libdeh said 1,200 foreign and Arab investors would also attend the conference. Asked if Israel was invited, he said, "The whole world is invited." Source: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-palestinians-conference.html
(Reliability: 8.5)

Japan To Take Up Rising Food Prices At G8 Summit

DOI 22 April 2008

THOMSON FINANCIAL (TOKYO)--Japan's Farm Minister said 22 April he will bring up food security in talks at the World Trade Organization and G8, fearing that soaring grain prices will hit importers. As demand shoots up, producers such as China, Argentina and Russia are looking at tightening grain exports to ensure domestic supply. In letters to UN chief Ban Ki-moon and World Band president Robert Zoellick, Japan asked for help in addressing the issue at the G8 summit, which groups Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States. Source: http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/04/22/afx4916779.html (Reliability: 8)

Cambodia Presents Documents On ASEAN Charter’s Ratification To Secretariat

DOI 18 April 2008

ANTARA (JAKARTA)—Cambodian Ambassador to Indonesia Khem Bunneang on behalf of his government handed documents on his country's ratification of the ASEAN Charter to ASEAN Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan at the ASEAN Secretariat on 18 April. Cambodia is the sixth country that has ratified the ASEAN Charter after Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, Laos, Malaysia and Vietnam. Four other ASEAN member countries have yet to ratify the charter, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar and Thailand. Source: http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=3856 (Reliability: 7)

Comment: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) holds annual meeting to discuss issues relevant to the development of Southeast Asian countries. Singapore hosted the 13^th Annual ASEAN Summit from 18-22 November 2007.

Algerian Ventures Sign $4.5 Billion PETCHEM Deals

DOI 14 April 2008

REUTERS (ALGIERS)-- According to APS news agency, Algeria's Sonatrach and Omani and Egyptian partners signed contracts with major construction companies on 14 April for two ammonia and urea projects worth a total of $4.5 billion. An Algerian-Omani joint venture called Al Aldjazairia Al Omania Lil Asmida signed an engineering, procurement and construction contract with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build a factory costing $2.4 billion at Arzew, 600 kilometres (373 miles) west of the capital Algiers. The joint venture between Sonatrach and Suhail Bahwan Group Holding (SBGH) of Oman has said the plant will produce 4,000 tonnes of ammonia and 7,000 tonnes of urea per day. Algerian officials (NFI) say that the plant is due to come onstream in three and a half years (late 2011). APS added that a joint venture between Sonatrach and Egypt's Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) signed an engineering and construction contract with Germany's Uhde, the plant engineering unit of ThyssenKrupp, also for an ammonia and urea plant at Arzew worth $2.16 billion. The joint venture, called Sorfert Algerie, plans to produce 4,400 tonnes a day of ammonia and 3,450 tonnes a day of urea. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL1476691620080414 (Reliability: 8)

Analysis: It is highly likely that Algeria is investing heavily in petrochemicals in order to diversify the range of products for export and get more value from its energy supplies. The Algerian state-owned energy group, Sonatrach has discovered four new oil and gas condensates this past week, bringing their total finds to five for the year. Algeria pumps about 1.4 million barrels of oil per day and exports 62 billion cubic metres of gas a year, mostly to Europe. The existence of new Algerian Petrochemical sites will likely be a target of interest for terrorist attacks. The Al-Qaida Branch of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has a heavy presence in Algeria and regularly attacks Algerian governmental interests. (Analytic Confidence: 8.5)

Egypt To Host Mideast "Mini-Summit" In May

DOI 12 April 2008

RIA NOVOSTI (CAIRO)-- According to Middle East News Agency (MENA), Egypt has officially confirmed that the Middle East 'mini-summit,' to be attended by the US president, will take place in late May in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The agency quoted Hossam Zaki, a spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, as saying that it will probably be held on the fringes of the International Economic Forum, which opens in the Egyptian resort town on May 18. In addition to the U.S. president, the summit may be also attended by Israeli, Palestinian, Egyptian presidents and the king of Jordan. The key issue on the agenda will be the continuation of peace talks between Israeli and Palestine authorities, which were launched last year at a summit in the United States. Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080411/104882695.html (Reliability: 6.5)

Paraguay Presidential Race: Former Bishop Maintains Lead

DOI 15 April 2008

MERCOPRESS (MONTEVIDEO)--Former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo is still the front-runner in the 20 April presidential election in Paraguay, but his lead over rival candidates has narrowed. Lugo leads with 34.5% of vote intention followed by retired Army general Lino Oviedo with 28.9% and ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar with 28.5%. These percentages are based on 65% electoral roll participation, but if the turnout falls to 40%, Ms Ovelar comes ahead with 34.1% followed by Lugo’s, 31.4% and Oviedo, 27.5%. Lugo draws support from a coalition of center and center left political, grass root and social groupings while Ms Ovelar responds to the Colorado Party of President Nicanor Duarte, a party which has ruled and dominated Paraguayan politics for over six decades, under authoritarian and democratic governments. Source: http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=13156&formato=HTML (Reliability 7.5)

Analysis: Voter participation in the 2003 election was 65%. It is likely that voter turnout will be similar, which would be favorable to Lugo. Since the presidential election does not include a run-off, Lugo is likely to face difficulties with accumulating solid support in congress, preventing him from making any drastic leftist changes. While sympathetic to Chavez and other leftist Latin American leaders, Lugo has tried to distance himself from their overall populist movements (likely a political move), and has opted to focus on internal Paraguayan social issues. (Confidence: 6)