Iran Holds Parliamentary Polls

DOI 25 April 2008

AL JAZEERA (TEHRAN)-Iranians are voting in the second round of legislative elections which Al-Jazeera expects to further tighten the conservatives' grip on parliament. Around 21 million people are eligible to vote on Friday, 25 April 2008 to choose MPs (Members of Parliament) for the 82 seats in the 290-seat chamber which were not decided outright in the first round on 14 March 2008. The reformists' chances over the two rounds were harmed by a significant number of their candidates being disqualified. No official figures for the share of seats in parliament were published after the first round but of the 209 MPs who were elected at least 130 were conservatives. Under Iranian election law candidates needed at least 25 per cent of the vote to be elected outright in the first round. Source: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/C6E52D0A-CADB-4C1B-8B96-35FA672B3953.htm
(Reliability: 8)

Analysis: It is unlikely the conservatives in the Iranian parliament will be willing to work with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on matters relating to the Iranian economy. Although President Ahmadinejad is a member of the conservative party, his economic policies have put him at odds with many in his party, and many conservatives blame President Ahmadinejad for Iran's high inflation and other economic problems. (Analytic Confidence: 7)

European Union Parliament Backs Fast Track Macedonia Access

DOI 24 April 2008

EURO NEWS (LYON ECULLY CEDEX, FRANCE)—The European Parliament (EP) voted to push ahead with plans to bring the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia into the European Union (EU). An overwhelming majority of EP members backed a report urging EU leaders to consider opening membership talks with Skopje before the end of 2008. Source: http://www.euronews.net/index.php?page=info&article=482635&lng=1 (Reliability: 8)

Comments: Macedonia’s early parliamentary elections will take place 1 June 2008. Macedonia's government collapsed after Greece blocked Macedonia’s recent bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during NATO’s summit in Bucharest, Romania on 3 April 2008. There is already a northern Greek region called Macedonia and Athens objects to Skopje adopting the same name for territorial and cultural reasons.

Serbia To Delay Ratifying Energy Deal

DOI 24 April 2008

MOSCOW TIMES (MOSCOW)—According to Serbia’s Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac, Serbian lawmakers will delay ratifying an oil and gas agreement with Gazprom until after the 11 May elections. Sutanovac called the delay a “campaign move,” and noted that under Serbia’s constitution, an outgoing government cannot propose laws or ratification of treaties to the outgoing parliament. Serbia agreed on 22 January, pending ratification, to sell 51 per cent of Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) to Gazprom and to open talks on building a pipeline through Serbia to Italy. Gazprom offered USD 584 million for the share in NIS. Source: http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1009/42/362288.htm (Reliability: 8)

United Nations Mission In Kosovo: Serb Elections In Kosovo Illegal

DOI 17 April 2008

NEW KOSOVA REPORT (SWEDEN)—According to United Nations Mission in Kosovo's (UNMIK) spokesperson Aleksandar Ivanko, Serb elections should not be held in Kosovo on 11 May 2008. According to Ivanko, United Nations (UN) Administrator Joachim Rücker is preparing a short answer for Serbia's Government, which insists that the Serb election should be held in the State of Kosovo. UN officials maintain that holding Serb elections in Kosovo violates resolution 1244, which put Kosovo under interim UN administration in 1999. Source: http://www.newkosovareport.com/20080417885/Politics/UNMIK-serb-elections-in-Kosovo-illegal.html (Reliability: 6.5)

Comment: Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in February 2008, and three dozen countries recognize Kosovo’s independence. Serbia’s decision to hold local elections in Kosovo indicates that Serbia ignores UN objections and still considers Kosovo a part of Serbia.

India Set To Do Business With Nepal Maoists

DOI 16 April 2008

TIMES OF INDIA (NEW DELHI)—Senior government sources said that India’s ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shankar Mukherjee was in touch with the Maoists who on Tuesday 15 April, 2008 continued their winning spree in Nepal’s Assembly elections, adding that “we are ready to sit with them”. India can hope to derive benefit from the end of status quo since the monarchy, for long, had been hostile to India’s interests. To the extent the mandate for the Maoists can be interpreted as a “vote against Kathmandu”, India can expect fresh opportunities to repair ties which have frequently been strained by mutual suspicions. Unnamed sources state that the election in Nepal had helped achieve two goals that India was keen on – democratization and mainstreaming of Maoists. Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/India_set_to_do_business_with_Nepal_Maoists/articleshow/2954828.cms
(Reliability: 7.5)

Comment: The final results of the Nepal’s Constituent Assembly election are still unknown. According to the New York Times, no party was expected to win by a landslide; however, the Maoists are doing much better than expected. As of 15 April 2008, the Maoists have won 108 out of 196 directly elected legislative seats.

Paraguay Presidential Race: Former Bishop Maintains Lead

DOI 15 April 2008

MERCOPRESS (MONTEVIDEO)--Former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo is still the front-runner in the 20 April presidential election in Paraguay, but his lead over rival candidates has narrowed. Lugo leads with 34.5% of vote intention followed by retired Army general Lino Oviedo with 28.9% and ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar with 28.5%. These percentages are based on 65% electoral roll participation, but if the turnout falls to 40%, Ms Ovelar comes ahead with 34.1% followed by Lugo’s, 31.4% and Oviedo, 27.5%. Lugo draws support from a coalition of center and center left political, grass root and social groupings while Ms Ovelar responds to the Colorado Party of President Nicanor Duarte, a party which has ruled and dominated Paraguayan politics for over six decades, under authoritarian and democratic governments. Source: http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=13156&formato=HTML (Reliability 7.5)

Analysis: Voter participation in the 2003 election was 65%. It is likely that voter turnout will be similar, which would be favorable to Lugo. Since the presidential election does not include a run-off, Lugo is likely to face difficulties with accumulating solid support in congress, preventing him from making any drastic leftist changes. While sympathetic to Chavez and other leftist Latin American leaders, Lugo has tried to distance himself from their overall populist movements (likely a political move), and has opted to focus on internal Paraguayan social issues. (Confidence: 6)

Bolivia Mayors Cling To Referendums

DOI 08 April 2008

PRENSA LATINA (COCHABAMBA)—After four hours of talking with the Bolivian Catholic Church, five opposition mayors insisted on holding the projected autonomous referendums, rejected by the National Electoral Court for their unlawful nature. Santa Cruz mayor Ruben Costas praised the bishops' initiative to bring them closer to the executive, but ratified the consultation on May 4. He said he will attend a new round of talks with the government only after the referendum, and "when conditions are created". On Monday, President Evo Morales called for straightforward dialog to solve the political crisis the country is facing. Source: http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID={93C155C9-201D-45C8-9E70-97ED58764BD9}&language=EN (Reliability: 7.5)

Analysis: The Supreme Court has ruled that both the nation-wide referendum and the localized referendums are unconstitutional. However, despite these rulings, the mayors anticipate the votes will occur. While Morales has stated that he does not intend to use military force in the breakaway provinces, it is likely he will change his stance if the localized referendums actually take place. Morales will likely feel increased pressure from his poor, highland, and indigenous constituencies, as well as from Argentina and Brazil, Bolivia's main natural gas customers—who have expressed anxiety about Bolivian gas production as winter approaches. (Analytic Confidence: 7.5)

Zimbabwe Election Results Unlikely To Be Released

DOI 09 April 2008

SW RADIO AFRICA (LONDON)--Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe continues to exert complete political control over the Zimbabwean electoral and legal processes. Eleven days after ZANU-PF (Zimbabwe African National Unity-Patriotic Front) narrowly and surprisingly lost their thirty year stranglehold on Parliament, the Presidential vote results remain under wraps. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), confident that Morgan Tsvangirai won the vote, sued the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission's (ZEC) for results on 5 April 08. ZEC's legal representative, George Chikumbirike, argued before the High Court that releasing the Presidential vote results would be 'dangerous.' The presiding judge, Tendai Uchena, deferred to Mugabe by reserving judgement until the 14 April 08. Meanwhile Harare correspondent Simon Muchemwa reported that ZEC officials started dismantling the election command centre at on Tuesday, and that Zimbabwe Intelligence Service officials replaced ZEC staffers, all clear signs that the results will probably never be announced. Source:
http://www.swradioafrica.com/news090408/dnagerous090408.htm (Reliability: 8)

Analysis: Mugabe is highly unlikely to give up office, and is highly likely to use his security forces to repress opposition, as he has done previously. Despite mounting regional pressure to release the vote results, from South Africa, Zambia, and Mozambique; Mugabe is likely to rig a runoff election in his favor and accept further international isolation and economic impoverishment. (Analytic Confidence: 8)

Afghan President Hints He'll Run For Re-Election

DOI 07 April 2008

NYT (KABUL)—Afghan President Hamid Karzai hinted Sunday, April 6, 2008 that he plans to run for a second term. President Karzai stated that he still has goals left he wishes to accomplish. The comments were his first public indications that he would run for re-election in the 2009 elections. Mike McConnell, the US Director of National Intelligence, stated earlier in 2008 that the Afghan central government controls only 30% of the country. He further stated that the Taliban controls about 10%, and local tribes control the rest. Marvin G. Weinbaum, a former State Department analyst on Afghanistan and current scholar in residence at the Middle East Institute in Washington, stated that the US would continue to back Mr. Karzai despite shortcomings that include a willingness to tolerate corruption within the Afghan government. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/world/asia/07afghan.html (Reliability: 8)