Bolivia Referendum Exposes Rift Between Rich, Poor

DOI 7 May 2008

REUTERS (SANTA CRUZ)-The cry for autonomy is strong in Bolivia's wealthy Santa Cruz province, but the poorest people here see the movement as a tactic by the rich to undercut leftist President Evo Morales. Santa Cruz voted for autonomy from the central government on Sunday in an unprecedented referendum widely seen as a rejection of Morales' policies and a challenge to his rule. A champion of indigenous rights, land reform and state control of the economy, Morales took power in 2006 and has the support of poor indigenous groups of the Andes, but he is increasingly unpopular in Bolivia's lush eastern lowlands.
Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN0748671220080507
(Reliability: 8)

US Offers USD 3 Million To Support Azerbaijan Presidential Election

DOI 01 May 2008

TREND NEWS (BAKU)—The United States government has allocated USD 3 million to support an open and democratic presidential election in Azerbaijan for October 2008. According to Anne E. Derse, US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, “The funds have been allocated not for any political parties or organizations, but to improve the situation in the sphere of freedom of speech and the election situation in the country.” Derse called upon all political parties in Azerbaijan to participate in the upcoming presidential elections. The ambassador hoped that a conflict among political parties over amendments in the Election Code could be solved before the election. Source: http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=1189267&lang=EN
(Reliability: 7)

Analysis: The Popular Front, Liberal and Citizen and Development parties, united in the Azadlig bloc, stated that they would boycott the elections if the country could not resolve certain election commission issues. American involvement in the election is likely to trigger charges of fraud and protests from opposition Azerbaijani political parties. (Analytic Confidence: 5)

Security Council To Hear Zimbabwean Opposition Complaint This Week, Sanctions Motion Likely

DOI 28 April 2008

SOUTH AFRICAN PRESS ASSOCIATION (HARARE)--Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Secretary-General Tendai Biti will take MDC's claim of victory in last month's election over President Robert Mugabe to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) this week (likely Wednesday morning). Biti will almost certainly say that MDC will not participate in an election runoff, according to MDC sources (NFI); as well as request a UN Special Envoy to assist the South African Development Community (SADC) to resolve the increasingly violent issue. Source: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/africa/news/article_1402162.php/Zimbabwe_opposition_to_brief_UN_Security_Council__2nd_Roundup

Analysis: The SADC region is hardening it stance to Mugabe following China's recall of the arms ship AnYue Jin. Last week US Special envoy for Africa, Jendayi Fraser, went on the record that MDC won the election, and in favor of arms sanctions against Zimbabwe, which was echoed by the UK. Despite increasing public pressure to stop supporting Mugabe's regime, China (UNSC Permanent Member, and primary Zimbabwean arms supplier) and South Africa (UNSC President - April) are unlikely to allow an arms embargo to pass. (Analytic Confidence: 6)

15 Special Police Units To Provide World Summit Security

DOI 24 April 2008

ANDINA (LIMA)--Over fifteen special police units of the Peruvian National Police (PNP) will ensure security and public order across the country before, during, and after the world summits. Some of the Special Police Units are the APEC General Command, the Police Operations Executive Directorate (DIREOP), the Anti Terrorism Directorate (DIRCOTE), Crime Investigation Directorate (DIRINCRI) and the Special Operations Directorate (DIROES), among others. Local authorities and a special team of police officers have been preparing for two years to host the world summits. Police units have looked to previous APEC and EU-LAC host countries for advice on security matters. PNP’s general director, Octavio Salazar, pointed out that 94 thousand 500 police officers will be working night and day to provide security during the major events. Source: http://www.livinginperu.com/news-6254-apec-peru-2008-apec-eu-lac-peru-2008-summits-daily-update
(Reliability: 8)

Ethiopia Launches Commodities Exchange

DOI 24 April 2008

AFP (ADDIS ABABA) — Ethiopia launched a commodities exchange market, aimed at boosting fair trade and stabilizing its food market on 24 April. Initial trading on the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange was limited to maize and haricot beans on the 24th, but is set to expand to coffee, sesame, teff (a staple grain in Ethiopia) and wheat. Ethiopian Finance Minister Mekonnen Manyazewal said the exchange represented "a new era" that would level the playing field for smaller farmers. Ethiopia earned over one billion dollars in the past nine months from exports of coffee, cereals, spices and other agricultural products. Source: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hx9JtHoqXrmt70jvUsQ86-S1e6vA (Reliability: 8.5)

Comment: Ethiopia is among Africa's least urbanized countries, and three-quarters of the country's 78 million people are dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. While a small number of traders will control trade on the exchange initially, the government is hoping the biggest beneficiaries are Ethiopia's farmers.

'Mugabe's Tsunami' of Refugees Flees Into South Africa

DOI 21 April 08

NEW YORK TIMES (NEW YORK) - Over 1,000 Zimbabwean refugees per day are fleeing political violence, 'torture camps,' and politically-manipulated food shortages in opposition areas into South Africa. Despite increased border patrolling, refugees are largely able to break through and find shelter with other Zimbabwean emigrants in Northern Province, who tended to be migrant workers. Now many are women with children seeking food and physical security. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) claims that 400 supporters had been arrested, 500 attacked, 10 killed and 3,000 families displaced. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/world/africa/21zimbabwe.html?ref=africa (Reliability: 8)

Ukraine Speeds Preparations Before Co-hosting Euro 2012

DOI: 22 April 2008

REUTERS (KIEV)–Ukraine will co-host Euro 2012, the European Soccer Championships, with Poland in April 2012. Ukraine is under pressure to speed up preparations for the championships ahead of a Union of European Football Association (UEFA) executive board meeting in June 2008. The UEDA expects Ukraine to resolve problems over the construction and upgrade of stadiums, accommodation, airport, railways, and road transportation. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who is touring cities due to host matches, Donetsk, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kiev, singled out airports as the most critical issue and urged ministers to reach agreements with local authorities to improve them. Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldFootballNews/idUKL2287761820080422. (Source Reliability: 9)

Analysis: It is likely President Yushchenko is vigorously preparing Ukraine for Euro 2012 because he sees it as an opportunity to demonstrate Ukraine's potential to integrate into the west. If Ukraine successfully co-hosts these games it is likely to encourage both Ukrainians and western Europe to support Ukrainian membership in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). (Analytic Confidence: 7)

Zambia Seeks To Block Arms For Zimbabwe

DOI 22 April 08

NYT (NEW YORK)--Zambia’s president, Levy Mwanawasa, urged nations in the region to bar a Chinese ship carrying arms destined for Zimbabwe from entering their waters, saying the shipment could deepen the country’s election crisis.The Chinese ship, An Yue Jiang, was turned away from South Africa and was heading for Angola in the hope of docking there, Mozambique said Saturday. Mozambique did not allow it to enter its waters. “I hope this will be the case with all the countries because we don’t want a situation which will escalate” the tension in Zimbabwe even more, said Mr. Mwanawasa, who is also chairman of the Southern African Development Community regional grouping. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/world/africa/22zimbabwe.html?ref=africa (Reliability: 8)

Comment: Mugabe has a reputation of being a 'strong man' in the region, meaning that he readily uses or threatens to use the Zimbabwean Army domestically and internationally. This is evidenced by his repression of Matabeleland in the mid-/late 1980's, domestic political repression, and large deployment in the DR Congo war. An arms embargo, informal or sanctioned by a multilateral, reduces Mugabe's ability to threaten his neighbors, who would prefer a less belligerent and more stable Zimbabwe.

Chinese Peacekeeping Strategy in Liberia Clearly Focused On Chinese Interests

DOI 20 April 08

CHINAVIEW (BEIJING)--The seventh detachment of Chinese peacekeeping troops arrived in Liberia on 18 April, under the auspices of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNAMIL). The Chinese contribution focuses on assistance in transportation, road and bridge construction, and medical care. This detachment, like the previous one, is comprised of a 240-member transport battalion, a 275-member engineering battalion, and a 43-member medical team. Source: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-04/20/content_8016694.htm (Reliability: 8)

Comment: The Chinese contribution to UNAMIL is consistent with their initiative to secure access to raw materials from Africa (particularly timber in Liberia since China lost a lucrative concession with the fall of Robert Taylor's regime), as well as to reclaim some goodwill from the average Liberian. China imported most of the labor required for its previous logging operation from China and Malaysia, leaving many Liberians unemployed and angry.

US Outpaces Chinese FDI in Mozambique in 2007

DOI 15 April 2008

AFROL NEWS (MASERU)--The United States maintained its lead in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mozambique, despite a very large increase in Chinese FDI in 2007. Chinese agriculture, forestry, and public works investment jumped from USD3m in 2003 to USD60m last year, moving China from ninth largest investor in Mozambique to sixth. Source: http://www.afrol.com/articles/28609 (Reliability: 6)

Comment: China's major interests in Africa are raw materials, as well as diplomatic support, particularly in United Nations chambers regarding Taiwan. China has waged a very effective public diplomacy, governement relations, and investment campaign in Africa since the 1990's, often outpacing and outmanoevering the United States. Not counting multilateral investments, the United States (USD281m) and Switzerland (USD170m) provided the largest FDI in 2007.

Blocked Zimbabwean Arms Shipment Likley To Be Diverted to Maputo or Dar es Salaam

DOI 18 April 2008

REUTERS (JOHANNESBURG ) - A South African union has refused to unload arms (carrying nearly 3 million rounds of small arms and light weapons (SALW), about 3,500 mortars and mortar launchers, as well as 1,500 rockets for rocket-propelled grenades) from a Chinese ship destined for Zimbabwe, in a politically charged move challenging President Thabo Mbeki's handling of relations with the neighboring state. The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (SATAWU) said it would not unload the weapons in the port city of Durban because Mugabe's government might use them to crack down on opponents in the disputed election. Zimbabwe's response has been shrill, and the Chinese response was muted, deferring comment since 'they did not understand the situation.' Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3772113.ece (Reliability: 9)

Analysis: Despite a South African High Court ruling preventing the government from blocking the shipment, civil society society groups are likely to prevent the military cargo from making its way over land to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is likely to send the An Yue Jiang to another port such as Maputo (Mozambique) or Dar es Salaam (Tanzania). (Confidence: 7)

Update: DOI 19 April 2008

NYT (NEW YORK) -- The An Yu
e Jiang and her cargo of SALW set sail for Maputo. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/world/africa/19zimbabwe.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th (Reliability: 8)

Update 2: DOI 21 April 2008

ALLAFRICA.COM (CAPE TOWN) --Mozambiquean and Tanzanian governments have refused to allow the An Yue Jiang offload its cargo in their ports, Beeld (a South African paper) reported on Monday. The An Yue Jiang, was last headed up the south-west coast of Africa towards Angola, and South African union activists are attempting to stop the arms from being offloaded and delivered to President Robert Mugabe's government. Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/200804211124.html (Reliability 8)