Tight Security For Olympic Torch In China-Friendly Pakistan, India Next

DOI 16 April 2008

CBC (ISLAMABAD)—Authorities in Pakistan are taking no chances as the country hosts the latest leg of the Olympic torch relay Wednesday, 16 April 2008 lining the streets of the capital, Islamabad, with thousands of police and sniffer dogs. Pakistan is one of China’s closest international allies and both countries want to make sure the progress of the torch is not disrupted by pro-Tibet rallies of the type seen earlier in Europe and the United States. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf stated no disruptions to the torch’s progress though his country would be allowed. The Olympic Torch is due in India on Thursday, 17 April 2008. Source: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/04/16/torch-pakistan.html (Reliability: 8)

India Set To Do Business With Nepal Maoists

DOI 16 April 2008

TIMES OF INDIA (NEW DELHI)—Senior government sources said that India’s ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shankar Mukherjee was in touch with the Maoists who on Tuesday 15 April, 2008 continued their winning spree in Nepal’s Assembly elections, adding that “we are ready to sit with them”. India can hope to derive benefit from the end of status quo since the monarchy, for long, had been hostile to India’s interests. To the extent the mandate for the Maoists can be interpreted as a “vote against Kathmandu”, India can expect fresh opportunities to repair ties which have frequently been strained by mutual suspicions. Unnamed sources state that the election in Nepal had helped achieve two goals that India was keen on – democratization and mainstreaming of Maoists. Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/India_set_to_do_business_with_Nepal_Maoists/articleshow/2954828.cms
(Reliability: 7.5)

Comment: The final results of the Nepal’s Constituent Assembly election are still unknown. According to the New York Times, no party was expected to win by a landslide; however, the Maoists are doing much better than expected. As of 15 April 2008, the Maoists have won 108 out of 196 directly elected legislative seats.

MDC Sets Conditions For Runoff In Zimbabwe

DOI 15 April 2008

BBC (LONDON)--Reversing an earlier reversal not to participate in a run-off election, a spokesman for Morgan Tsvangirai (Movement for Democratic Change) stated that MDC would participate in a run-off if certain conditions were met: that South African Development Community representatives are present in every polling station. WARNING: Video contains disturbing footage: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7349669.stm. (Reliability: 8)

Paraguay Presidential Race: Former Bishop Maintains Lead

DOI 15 April 2008

MERCOPRESS (MONTEVIDEO)--Former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo is still the front-runner in the 20 April presidential election in Paraguay, but his lead over rival candidates has narrowed. Lugo leads with 34.5% of vote intention followed by retired Army general Lino Oviedo with 28.9% and ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar with 28.5%. These percentages are based on 65% electoral roll participation, but if the turnout falls to 40%, Ms Ovelar comes ahead with 34.1% followed by Lugo’s, 31.4% and Oviedo, 27.5%. Lugo draws support from a coalition of center and center left political, grass root and social groupings while Ms Ovelar responds to the Colorado Party of President Nicanor Duarte, a party which has ruled and dominated Paraguayan politics for over six decades, under authoritarian and democratic governments. Source: http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=13156&formato=HTML (Reliability 7.5)

Analysis: Voter participation in the 2003 election was 65%. It is likely that voter turnout will be similar, which would be favorable to Lugo. Since the presidential election does not include a run-off, Lugo is likely to face difficulties with accumulating solid support in congress, preventing him from making any drastic leftist changes. While sympathetic to Chavez and other leftist Latin American leaders, Lugo has tried to distance himself from their overall populist movements (likely a political move), and has opted to focus on internal Paraguayan social issues. (Confidence: 6)

Delayed Ivorian Election Announced, Post-Election Return To Hostilities Likely

DOI 14 April 2008

UN NEWS (NEW YORK) – The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) praised the announcement of much delayed presidential elections on 30 November 2008, as "one of the greatest achievements in the Ivorian peace process since the outbreak of the crisis more than four years ago." Côte d'Ivoire became divided in 2002 between the Government-controlled south and the rebel Forces Nouvelles-held north, but last year's Ouagadougou Peace Agreement paved the way for an end to the conflict and included a provision calling for free and fair elections to be held. Presidential polls were to be held as far back as 2005, but have been delayed several times. Despite the good news, a fresh UN Security Council report cites credible information that both sides have violated the arms purchasing, border control, and military training provisions of the 2004 Council Resolution. Source: http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=26324&Cr=ivoire&Cr1= (Reliability: 9)

Analysis: The degree to which the government and rebels have been quietly, but not invisibly, preparing for further hostilities suggest that the peace is very fragile. Under these conditions, and where one or the other side is likely to take umbrage at the outcome of the election, a return to open hostility is likely. The continued presence of UNOCI may provide a deterrent effect initially, until 30 November 2008, but, given UNOCI's inability to monitor or adequately enforce the arms embargo, their presence will be insufficient to prevent violence if either party chooses it. (Confidence: 5)

Zimbabwe Opposition Leader Flees To Botswana

DOI 14 April 2008

THE NATION (NAIROBI)-- Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has fled to neighbouring Botswana fearing for his life as the presidential election standoff reached its third week Monday. Mr Tsvangirai left volatile Zimbabwe last week to lobby regional leaders ahead of a crisis meeting on Saturday. Mr Tsvangirai did not return to Zimbabwe after the summit and today the government owned Botswana Daily News said he was on an "indefinite stay in the neighbouring country."

The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which beat Mr Mugabe's ruling Zanu PF in parallel parliamentary elections says it believes the lives of its leaders are danger amid signs that the ruling party has embarked on a violent campaign to regain its power. Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200804141860.html (Reliability:9)

Mugabe Consolidates Power On Streets & In Chambers

DOI 15 April 2008

REUTERS (HARARE)--Three setbacks, failed protests, a recount and runoff, and regional soft-pedaling, make further gains for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) highly unlikely.

Mugabe's loyal police and security forces fanned out over the country, concentrating on MDC areas in anticipation of protests. The protests did not materialize, likely on account of the regime's brutal 2007 crackdown on MDC protesters. The initiative is clearly back on Mugabe's side, where it is very likely to stay. Mugabe is maneuvering to recount key districts in the Parliamentary vote, and is planning a Presidential run-off election, which MDC has rejected, claiming it has won outright. Mugabe is highly likely to steal both votes.

Fearing that instability in Zimbabwe could spill over the borders, members of the South African Development Community (SADC) convened a crisis meeting over the weekend, and hoped to broker a resolution between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. Mugabe did not attend, and, despite statements urging a peaceful settlement of the crisis, the meeting did not produce a uniform policy.

The key regional player, South Africa, continues to sit on the fence. Thabo Mbeki, South African President, has stated that there 'is no post-election crisis in Zimbabwe.' His rival within the ruling African National Congress (ANC), Jacob Zuma, held crisis talks with Tsvangirai representatives last week, and the ANC National Committee stated that the situation in Zimbabwe was 'dire.'
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idUSWEB159520080415?pageNumber=1&virtualBrandChannel=0 (Reliability: 8)

Comment: While South Africa appears to be sending 'mixed messages,' they are consistent with South Africa's policy of being a 'neutral mediator' for its neighbor's troubles. South Africa's adoption of the mediator role also suggests that South Africa is unsure which is worse: an unstable Zimbabwe under Mugabe, or an unstable Zimbabwe under Tsvangirai, who would have a very tenuous grasp over the security and intelligence services. Prior to the election, Mugabe also threated a return to bush war if he lost.