US, Georgia Will Conduct Joint Military Drills Near Tbilisi In July 2008

DOI 18 April 2008

RIA NOVOSTI(TBILISI)–US and Georgian military forces will hold a joint-exercise, "Immediate Response 2008," near Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, in July 2008, according to the Georgian Defense Ministry. Around 2,000 personnel, mostly from the US but also from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine, will join Georgian troops in the exercises. The exercises will take place at several Georgian military sites including the Vaziani military base and the Poti naval base. Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080415/105155362.html. (Reliability: 6)

Analysis: It is highly likely this military exercise will cause Russia to escalate threats of supporting secessionist regions within Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia has been a delicate issue with the Russians because of its attempt to win a membership bid from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Before NATO denied Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP) on 3 April 2008, Russia threatened to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. While Russia was obviously threatened by the possibility of its southern neighbor joining NATO, it is almost certain Russia will feel far more threatened by joint US-Georgian military exercises on its door step. (Analytic Confidence: 9)