15 Special Police Units To Provide World Summit Security

DOI 24 April 2008

ANDINA (LIMA)--Over fifteen special police units of the Peruvian National Police (PNP) will ensure security and public order across the country before, during, and after the world summits. Some of the Special Police Units are the APEC General Command, the Police Operations Executive Directorate (DIREOP), the Anti Terrorism Directorate (DIRCOTE), Crime Investigation Directorate (DIRINCRI) and the Special Operations Directorate (DIROES), among others. Local authorities and a special team of police officers have been preparing for two years to host the world summits. Police units have looked to previous APEC and EU-LAC host countries for advice on security matters. PNP’s general director, Octavio Salazar, pointed out that 94 thousand 500 police officers will be working night and day to provide security during the major events. Source: http://www.livinginperu.com/news-6254-apec-peru-2008-apec-eu-lac-peru-2008-summits-daily-update
(Reliability: 8)

Egypt Could Become Major Gold Producer In Next Decade

DOI 24 April 2008

RIA NOVOSTI (CAIRO)- Egypt could become a leading gold producer within the next decade following the discovery of large reserves in the country's Eastern Desert, the Le Progres Egyptian newspaper said Monday, April 21. Proven reserves at the Wadi Hudain deposit alone exceed 50 million ounces, worth around $50 billion. Amgad Ghoneim, a senior ministry official, said under a development program gold output should reach 30 metric tons annually in the next ten years. "At the first stage in the initial two years we will produce three metric tons near Hemesh and seven metric tons near al-Sukari," Ghoneim said, adding that the amount would be increased to 18 metric tons in the future. Source: http://mnweekly.ru/world/20080424/55325518.html (Reliability: 5.5)

Comment: According to Ghoneim, Gold production will depend on the number of companies working in the country. Currently, two foreign companies (NFI) are active in the exploration of the gold, while nine other companies are active in the process (NFI).

Ethiopia Launches Commodities Exchange

DOI 24 April 2008

AFP (ADDIS ABABA) — Ethiopia launched a commodities exchange market, aimed at boosting fair trade and stabilizing its food market on 24 April. Initial trading on the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange was limited to maize and haricot beans on the 24th, but is set to expand to coffee, sesame, teff (a staple grain in Ethiopia) and wheat. Ethiopian Finance Minister Mekonnen Manyazewal said the exchange represented "a new era" that would level the playing field for smaller farmers. Ethiopia earned over one billion dollars in the past nine months from exports of coffee, cereals, spices and other agricultural products. Source: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hx9JtHoqXrmt70jvUsQ86-S1e6vA (Reliability: 8.5)

Comment: Ethiopia is among Africa's least urbanized countries, and three-quarters of the country's 78 million people are dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. While a small number of traders will control trade on the exchange initially, the government is hoping the biggest beneficiaries are Ethiopia's farmers.

'Mugabe's Tsunami' of Refugees Flees Into South Africa

DOI 21 April 08

NEW YORK TIMES (NEW YORK) - Over 1,000 Zimbabwean refugees per day are fleeing political violence, 'torture camps,' and politically-manipulated food shortages in opposition areas into South Africa. Despite increased border patrolling, refugees are largely able to break through and find shelter with other Zimbabwean emigrants in Northern Province, who tended to be migrant workers. Now many are women with children seeking food and physical security. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) claims that 400 supporters had been arrested, 500 attacked, 10 killed and 3,000 families displaced. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/world/africa/21zimbabwe.html?ref=africa (Reliability: 8)

Iran Holds Parliamentary Polls

DOI 25 April 2008

AL JAZEERA (TEHRAN)-Iranians are voting in the second round of legislative elections which Al-Jazeera expects to further tighten the conservatives' grip on parliament. Around 21 million people are eligible to vote on Friday, 25 April 2008 to choose MPs (Members of Parliament) for the 82 seats in the 290-seat chamber which were not decided outright in the first round on 14 March 2008. The reformists' chances over the two rounds were harmed by a significant number of their candidates being disqualified. No official figures for the share of seats in parliament were published after the first round but of the 209 MPs who were elected at least 130 were conservatives. Under Iranian election law candidates needed at least 25 per cent of the vote to be elected outright in the first round. Source: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/C6E52D0A-CADB-4C1B-8B96-35FA672B3953.htm
(Reliability: 8)

Analysis: It is unlikely the conservatives in the Iranian parliament will be willing to work with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on matters relating to the Iranian economy. Although President Ahmadinejad is a member of the conservative party, his economic policies have put him at odds with many in his party, and many conservatives blame President Ahmadinejad for Iran's high inflation and other economic problems. (Analytic Confidence: 7)

Turkmenistan To Suppy EU With Natural Gas In 2009

DOI 22 April 2008

UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL (WASHINGTON)–Turkmenistan has committed to begin supplying natural gas straight to the European Union (EU) in 2009. On 10 April 2008, an EU delegation held talks with Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov and emerged with an agreement that will provide 10 billion cubic meters (BCM) annually. The meeting was driven by the EU's soaring demand for natural gas, which is expected to grow to 536 BCM by 2010 and 619 BCM in 2020. Source: http://www.upi.com/International_Security/Energy/Analysis/2008/04/22/analysis_eu_and_central_asian_gas/4940/. (Source Reliability: 7)

Comment: Although Turkmenistan has committed to supplying gas directly to the EU, bypassing Russia, it is unclear how both parties intend to deliver the product. The necessary pipeline infrastructure for delivery of natural gas straight from Turkmenistan to the EU, specifically the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP), will not be available by 2009. Some EU members have proposed liquefying the natural gas and shipping it via tanker across the Caspian Sea as an alternative.

Sudan Sends Delegation To Discuss Britain Offer of Darfur Conference

DOI 19 April 2008

SUDAN TIMES (KHARTOUM)— A Sudanese high level delegation will visit London by the end of the month to hold talks with the British officials over Darfur peace process. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on April 12 he was in contact with the Sudanese government and rebel groups to host peace talks to end the five year crisis in Darfur. The Sudanese Foreign minister Deng Alor flanked by the presidential advisor Mustfa Osman Ismail will pay a visit to the British capital carrying a written message from President Omar Bashir, the British Prime Minister Cordon Brown. The two-day visit will take place on 29-30 April. Source: http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article26818 (Reliability: 7.5)

Analysis: It is highly likely that the opposing rebel groups responsible for the humanitarian crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan will not recognize any agreements that come out of a Darfur Conference in the United Kingdom. According to the Sudan Times, some rebel groups have already ignored Britain's offer. The rebel reaction to a conference not involving the rebel groups will likely mirror that of the Dakar Agreement signed by the Presidents of Chad and Sudan on 13 March 2008. (Analytic Confidence: 8)

First Nations Will Likely Target Vancouver Olympics During Protest

DOI 21 April 2008

TORONTO STAR (TORONTO)—According to Canada's top native chief, Phil Fontaine, the Vancouver Olympics could become a target of First Nations protest much like Beijing is a flashpoint for Tibet supporters. According to Fontaine, native leaders will use whatever chance they can to focus governments on aboriginal poverty. Vancouver hosts the 2010 Winter Olympic Games 12-28 February 2010, but First Nations plans to hold a peaceful day of national demonstrations on 29 May 2008. Source: http://www.thestar.com/Sports/article/416679 (Reliability: 8)

Analysis: It is likely that the First Nations’ peaceful day of national demonstrations, planned for 29 May 2008, will not be completely peaceful, and will instead include disruptive acts directed towards the 2010 Olympic Games. First Nations planned a similar event during June 2008, and some militant factions shut down highways and railroad lines. (Analytic Confidence: 6)

European Union Parliament Backs Fast Track Macedonia Access

DOI 24 April 2008

EURO NEWS (LYON ECULLY CEDEX, FRANCE)—The European Parliament (EP) voted to push ahead with plans to bring the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia into the European Union (EU). An overwhelming majority of EP members backed a report urging EU leaders to consider opening membership talks with Skopje before the end of 2008. Source: http://www.euronews.net/index.php?page=info&article=482635&lng=1 (Reliability: 8)

Comments: Macedonia’s early parliamentary elections will take place 1 June 2008. Macedonia's government collapsed after Greece blocked Macedonia’s recent bid to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) during NATO’s summit in Bucharest, Romania on 3 April 2008. There is already a northern Greek region called Macedonia and Athens objects to Skopje adopting the same name for territorial and cultural reasons.

Serbia To Delay Ratifying Energy Deal

DOI 24 April 2008

MOSCOW TIMES (MOSCOW)—According to Serbia’s Defense Minister Dragan Sutanovac, Serbian lawmakers will delay ratifying an oil and gas agreement with Gazprom until after the 11 May elections. Sutanovac called the delay a “campaign move,” and noted that under Serbia’s constitution, an outgoing government cannot propose laws or ratification of treaties to the outgoing parliament. Serbia agreed on 22 January, pending ratification, to sell 51 per cent of Naftna Industrija Srbije (NIS) to Gazprom and to open talks on building a pipeline through Serbia to Italy. Gazprom offered USD 584 million for the share in NIS. Source: http://www.moscowtimes.ru/article/1009/42/362288.htm (Reliability: 8)

Ukraine Speeds Preparations Before Co-hosting Euro 2012

DOI: 22 April 2008

REUTERS (KIEV)–Ukraine will co-host Euro 2012, the European Soccer Championships, with Poland in April 2012. Ukraine is under pressure to speed up preparations for the championships ahead of a Union of European Football Association (UEFA) executive board meeting in June 2008. The UEDA expects Ukraine to resolve problems over the construction and upgrade of stadiums, accommodation, airport, railways, and road transportation. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who is touring cities due to host matches, Donetsk, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kiev, singled out airports as the most critical issue and urged ministers to reach agreements with local authorities to improve them. Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldFootballNews/idUKL2287761820080422. (Source Reliability: 9)

Analysis: It is likely President Yushchenko is vigorously preparing Ukraine for Euro 2012 because he sees it as an opportunity to demonstrate Ukraine's potential to integrate into the west. If Ukraine successfully co-hosts these games it is likely to encourage both Ukrainians and western Europe to support Ukrainian membership in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). (Analytic Confidence: 7)

Surging Penis-Theft Panic Leaves Rebels Choking

DOI Apr 22, 2008

KINSHASA (REUTERS)--Police in Kinshasa arrested 13 suspected sorcerers accused of using black magic to steal or shrink men's penises. Rumors of penis theft started getting around last week in Kinshasa, DR Congo's sprawling capital, leading to a rash of beatings and attempted lynchings. Penis theft panic quickly dominated radio call-in shows, with listeners advised to beware of fellow passengers in communal taxis wearing gold rings. Victims claimed that sorcerers simply touched them to make their genitals shrink or disappear, in an attempt to extort cash for a cure. "We've had a number of attempted lynchings. ... You see them covered in marks after being beaten," Kinshasa's police chief, Jean-Dieudonne Oleko, told Reuters. Some Kinshasa residents accuse a separatist sect from nearby Bas-Congo province of being behind the witchcraft in revenge for a recent government crackdown on their members. Source:http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2290323220080422?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0 (Reliability: 9)

Palestinian Conference To Raise USD 600 Million For Gaza

DOI 23 April 2008

REUTERS (RAMALLAH)-A Palestinian hosted investment conference hopes to raise USD 600 million for the Gaza Strip. The Palestine Investment Conference opens in the West Bank city of Bethlehem 21-23 May 2008. Hassan Abu Libdeh, chief executive officer of the conference, stated that he expects to raise USD 1.5 billion; USD 600 million would be designated for the Gaza Strip while the other USD 900 million would be spent on projects in the occupied West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem. The conference is part of efforts to boost the Palestinian economy as Palestinians take part in US-backed peace talks with Israel. Abu Libdeh said many of the planned "mega-projects" the conference hopes to promote would be slated for the Gaza Strip and 100 investors from the territory would attend the gathering. Under pressure from the United States, which wants to see a deal on Palestinian statehood by year's end, Israel said this week it would ease access to Bethlehem for the conference. Abu Libdeh said 1,200 foreign and Arab investors would also attend the conference. Asked if Israel was invited, he said, "The whole world is invited." Source: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-palestinians-conference.html
(Reliability: 8.5)

Cambodian General Election Set For 27 July 2008

DOI 21 April 2008

AFP (PHNOM PENH)—Cambodians will go to the polls on July 27 for a general election in which more than eight million people are expected to cast their vote, an election commission official said Monday. Incumbent Prime Minster Hun Sen -- the longest-serving elected premier in Southeast Asia with 23 years in power -- and his ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) are widely expected to win the poll. Tep Nitha, secretary general of the National Election Committee (NEC), said that 8,124,391 people registered to vote before the February deadline. Source: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h6FqdAWkPWgzEb8D32FAlejcfddw (Reliability: 7)

Japan To Take Up Rising Food Prices At G8 Summit

DOI 22 April 2008

THOMSON FINANCIAL (TOKYO)--Japan's Farm Minister said 22 April he will bring up food security in talks at the World Trade Organization and G8, fearing that soaring grain prices will hit importers. As demand shoots up, producers such as China, Argentina and Russia are looking at tightening grain exports to ensure domestic supply. In letters to UN chief Ban Ki-moon and World Band president Robert Zoellick, Japan asked for help in addressing the issue at the G8 summit, which groups Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States. Source: http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/04/22/afx4916779.html (Reliability: 8)

Zambia Seeks To Block Arms For Zimbabwe

DOI 22 April 08

NYT (NEW YORK)--Zambia’s president, Levy Mwanawasa, urged nations in the region to bar a Chinese ship carrying arms destined for Zimbabwe from entering their waters, saying the shipment could deepen the country’s election crisis.The Chinese ship, An Yue Jiang, was turned away from South Africa and was heading for Angola in the hope of docking there, Mozambique said Saturday. Mozambique did not allow it to enter its waters. “I hope this will be the case with all the countries because we don’t want a situation which will escalate” the tension in Zimbabwe even more, said Mr. Mwanawasa, who is also chairman of the Southern African Development Community regional grouping. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/world/africa/22zimbabwe.html?ref=africa (Reliability: 8)

Comment: Mugabe has a reputation of being a 'strong man' in the region, meaning that he readily uses or threatens to use the Zimbabwean Army domestically and internationally. This is evidenced by his repression of Matabeleland in the mid-/late 1980's, domestic political repression, and large deployment in the DR Congo war. An arms embargo, informal or sanctioned by a multilateral, reduces Mugabe's ability to threaten his neighbors, who would prefer a less belligerent and more stable Zimbabwe.

Chinese Peacekeeping Strategy in Liberia Clearly Focused On Chinese Interests

DOI 20 April 08

CHINAVIEW (BEIJING)--The seventh detachment of Chinese peacekeeping troops arrived in Liberia on 18 April, under the auspices of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNAMIL). The Chinese contribution focuses on assistance in transportation, road and bridge construction, and medical care. This detachment, like the previous one, is comprised of a 240-member transport battalion, a 275-member engineering battalion, and a 43-member medical team. Source: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-04/20/content_8016694.htm (Reliability: 8)

Comment: The Chinese contribution to UNAMIL is consistent with their initiative to secure access to raw materials from Africa (particularly timber in Liberia since China lost a lucrative concession with the fall of Robert Taylor's regime), as well as to reclaim some goodwill from the average Liberian. China imported most of the labor required for its previous logging operation from China and Malaysia, leaving many Liberians unemployed and angry.

Intense Fighting Likely To End Peace Deal In Burundi

DOI 18 April 2008

BBC (LONDON)--The incompletely implemented 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is under extreme pressure as Forces Nationales de Liberation (FNL: a major rebel group who are not signatories to the CPA) and government forces clashed around the capital, Bujumbura, for three days this week. Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7354005.stm

Analysis: FNL is the last major obstacle to a comprehensive peace agreement in Burundi. The government and international negotiators have been unable to satisfy FNL demands, or dislodge FNL's presence around Bujumbura. FNL's ability to recruit, organize, arm, and fight suggests leverage over other rebel groups. The perception of increasing FNL strength is likely to draw ex-rebels into the FNL fold, and likely broaden the conflict again. (Analytic Confidence: 6)

US Outpaces Chinese FDI in Mozambique in 2007

DOI 15 April 2008

AFROL NEWS (MASERU)--The United States maintained its lead in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mozambique, despite a very large increase in Chinese FDI in 2007. Chinese agriculture, forestry, and public works investment jumped from USD3m in 2003 to USD60m last year, moving China from ninth largest investor in Mozambique to sixth. Source: http://www.afrol.com/articles/28609 (Reliability: 6)

Comment: China's major interests in Africa are raw materials, as well as diplomatic support, particularly in United Nations chambers regarding Taiwan. China has waged a very effective public diplomacy, governement relations, and investment campaign in Africa since the 1990's, often outpacing and outmanoevering the United States. Not counting multilateral investments, the United States (USD281m) and Switzerland (USD170m) provided the largest FDI in 2007.