Bolivia Mayors Cling To Referendums

DOI 08 April 2008

PRENSA LATINA (COCHABAMBA)—After four hours of talking with the Bolivian Catholic Church, five opposition mayors insisted on holding the projected autonomous referendums, rejected by the National Electoral Court for their unlawful nature. Santa Cruz mayor Ruben Costas praised the bishops' initiative to bring them closer to the executive, but ratified the consultation on May 4. He said he will attend a new round of talks with the government only after the referendum, and "when conditions are created". On Monday, President Evo Morales called for straightforward dialog to solve the political crisis the country is facing. Source: http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID={93C155C9-201D-45C8-9E70-97ED58764BD9}&language=EN (Reliability: 7.5)

Analysis: The Supreme Court has ruled that both the nation-wide referendum and the localized referendums are unconstitutional. However, despite these rulings, the mayors anticipate the votes will occur. While Morales has stated that he does not intend to use military force in the breakaway provinces, it is likely he will change his stance if the localized referendums actually take place. Morales will likely feel increased pressure from his poor, highland, and indigenous constituencies, as well as from Argentina and Brazil, Bolivia's main natural gas customers—who have expressed anxiety about Bolivian gas production as winter approaches. (Analytic Confidence: 7.5)

Kazakhstan, China Plan To Build New Gas Pipeline

DOI 09 April 2008

KAZINFORM (ASTANA)—China and Kazakhstan will start building a cross-border natural gas pipeline in 2008. Kazakhstan plans to spend about US 3.4 billion on the pipeline, which will take natural gas from the Caspian Sea through the country's south and on to China by 2011. The project will transport as much as 5 billion cubic meters (BCM) of Caspian gas annually via the Beyneu-Bozoy-Samsonovka pipeline network. Source: http://www.inform.kz/showarticle.php?lang=eng&id=162902
(Reliability: 6)

Comment: Kazakhstan plans to increase annual gas production to 80 BCM in 2015 from a projected 35.7 BCM in 2009. Chinese energy officials estimate their country's gas demand will increase more than 15 percent annually for the next 20 years.

Sweden Begins Preparations For United Nations-Iraq Summit

DOI 10 April 2008

EUROPE WORLD NEWS (STOCKHOLM)—According to Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt, Sweden began preparations to host a summit on Iraq on 29 May in collaboration with Baghdad and the United Nations (UN). Bildt said the one-day summit will focus on "international support, reconciliation and state building" in Iraq. According to International Development Cooperation Minister Gunilla Carlsson, the conference is important against the backdrop of the "UN's increasing role" to coordinate and supervise reconstruction efforts in Iraq. Source: http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/198086,sweden-has-begun-preparations-for-un-iraq-summit.html (Reliability: 7)

Comment: One year ago at a summit in Egypt, the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri-al-Maliki co-launched the International Compact for Iraq (ICI). More than 60 countries participated in the ICI’s launch, which produced USD 30 billion in commitments, mostly in debt relief.

Kenya To Spend Millions For AIDS Treatment In 2009

DOI 06 April 2008

AFP (NAIROBI) — According to the Kenyan Health Ministry, Kenya will spend $61.4 million in 2009 on antiretroviral (ARV) therapy for a surge of new HIV/AIDS patients in the country. Some 190,000 patients are currently on ARV treatment, with a monthly increase of 5,000 new patients, according to the ministry. HIV/AIDS patients are expected to increase by 60,000; making an approximate total of 250,000 HIV/AIDS clients for 2009. The funds will be provided by the government, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria and foreign charities and foundations. Kenya's official AIDS prevalence rate is 5.1 percent, down from 5.9 percent in 2005. Source: http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080406/hl_afp/healthkenyaaids (Reliability: 8)

Comment: In 2003, President George W. Bush announced the Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, a five-year, $15 billion U.S. Government initiative that aims to provide treatment and care to at least 12 million HIV/AIDS infected individuals, and provide prevention to at least 7 million individuals. Under the Emergency Plan, Kenya received nearly $92.5 million in Fiscal Year (FY) 2004, more than $142.9 million in FY 2005, approximately $208.3 million in FY 2006 and approximately $368.1 million in FY 2007 to support comprehensive HIV/AIDS prevention, treatment and care programs. Source: http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/global_health/aids/Countries/africa/kenya.html

Zimbabwe Election Results Unlikely To Be Released

DOI 09 April 2008

SW RADIO AFRICA (LONDON)--Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe continues to exert complete political control over the Zimbabwean electoral and legal processes. Eleven days after ZANU-PF (Zimbabwe African National Unity-Patriotic Front) narrowly and surprisingly lost their thirty year stranglehold on Parliament, the Presidential vote results remain under wraps. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), confident that Morgan Tsvangirai won the vote, sued the Zimbabwean Electoral Commission's (ZEC) for results on 5 April 08. ZEC's legal representative, George Chikumbirike, argued before the High Court that releasing the Presidential vote results would be 'dangerous.' The presiding judge, Tendai Uchena, deferred to Mugabe by reserving judgement until the 14 April 08. Meanwhile Harare correspondent Simon Muchemwa reported that ZEC officials started dismantling the election command centre at on Tuesday, and that Zimbabwe Intelligence Service officials replaced ZEC staffers, all clear signs that the results will probably never be announced. Source:
http://www.swradioafrica.com/news090408/dnagerous090408.htm (Reliability: 8)

Analysis: Mugabe is highly unlikely to give up office, and is highly likely to use his security forces to repress opposition, as he has done previously. Despite mounting regional pressure to release the vote results, from South Africa, Zambia, and Mozambique; Mugabe is likely to rig a runoff election in his favor and accept further international isolation and economic impoverishment. (Analytic Confidence: 8)

Afghan President Hints He'll Run For Re-Election

DOI 07 April 2008

NYT (KABUL)—Afghan President Hamid Karzai hinted Sunday, April 6, 2008 that he plans to run for a second term. President Karzai stated that he still has goals left he wishes to accomplish. The comments were his first public indications that he would run for re-election in the 2009 elections. Mike McConnell, the US Director of National Intelligence, stated earlier in 2008 that the Afghan central government controls only 30% of the country. He further stated that the Taliban controls about 10%, and local tribes control the rest. Marvin G. Weinbaum, a former State Department analyst on Afghanistan and current scholar in residence at the Middle East Institute in Washington, stated that the US would continue to back Mr. Karzai despite shortcomings that include a willingness to tolerate corruption within the Afghan government. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/07/world/asia/07afghan.html (Reliability: 8)

Shanghai Unveils New Airport

DOI 30 March 2008

BBC (BEIJING)—China has opened a huge new airport terminal in Shanghai, a month after opening the country's biggest airport building in Beijing. The Shanghai terminal more than doubles the passenger capacity of Pudong International Airport - which can now handle 60m people a year. Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7314916.stm (Reliability: 8)

Comment: Beijing and Shanghai opened new air terminals to support the influx of air traffic due to the 2008 Summer Olympics in Beijing and the 2010 World Expo in Shanghai.