DOI 08 May 2008
ABC (AUSTRALIA)--Last weekend's informal meeting between representatives of the Chinese Government and the Dalai Lama appear to have paved the way for formal talks. According to a statement from the Dalai Lama's envoy, Lodi Gyari, the governments will set a date soon for a seventh round of official negotiations. "Despite major differences on important issues, each side made concrete proposals which can be part of the future agenda," the statement said. Exile groups say the Chinese government killed 203 Tibetans in the recent crackdown there. The Chinese Government says Tibetan rioters killed 21 people. Source: http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/05/08/2239516.htm?section=world (Reliability: 7)
09 May 2008
CEO Will Replace Medvedev As Gazprom Chairman
DOI 7 May 2008
FORBES(MOSCOW)—The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, will become its new Chairman, replacing President Dmitry Medvedev. Miller became the acting Chairman just hours after Medvedev replaced Vladimir Putin as President of Russia on 7 May 2008. Miller will officially become the Chairman after a shareholder’s meeting in June 2008. Source: http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/05/07/ap4979385.html (Reliability: 8)
FORBES(MOSCOW)—The Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Gazprom, Alexei Miller, will become its new Chairman, replacing President Dmitry Medvedev. Miller became the acting Chairman just hours after Medvedev replaced Vladimir Putin as President of Russia on 7 May 2008. Miller will officially become the Chairman after a shareholder’s meeting in June 2008. Source: http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2008/05/07/ap4979385.html (Reliability: 8)
In Democracy Kuwait Trusts, But Not Much
DOI 6 May 2008
HERALD TRIBUNE(KUWAIT)-As the May 17 parliamentary elections approach candidates refer again and again to a "halat ihbaat" — state of frustration. Efforts to overhaul Kuwait's sclerotic welfare state have stalled in its fractious and divided Parliament, and scandals led the emir to dissolve the chamber last month for the second time in less than two years, forcing new elections. All this has left many Kuwaitis deeply disenchanted with their 50-member elected legislature. The collapse of the Bush administration's efforts to promote democracy in the region and the continuing chaos in Iraq, just to the north — once heralded as the birthplace of a new democratic model — have also contributed to a popular suspicion among Kuwaitis that democracy itself is one Western import that has not lived up to its advertising. Source: http:www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/06/africa/06kuwait.php
(Reliability: 7.5)
HERALD TRIBUNE(KUWAIT)-As the May 17 parliamentary elections approach candidates refer again and again to a "halat ihbaat" — state of frustration. Efforts to overhaul Kuwait's sclerotic welfare state have stalled in its fractious and divided Parliament, and scandals led the emir to dissolve the chamber last month for the second time in less than two years, forcing new elections. All this has left many Kuwaitis deeply disenchanted with their 50-member elected legislature. The collapse of the Bush administration's efforts to promote democracy in the region and the continuing chaos in Iraq, just to the north — once heralded as the birthplace of a new democratic model — have also contributed to a popular suspicion among Kuwaitis that democracy itself is one Western import that has not lived up to its advertising. Source: http:www.iht.com/articles/2008/05/06/africa/06kuwait.php
(Reliability: 7.5)
Big Bang Experiment Ready To Go
DOI 8 May 2008
SKY NEWS (LONDON)—The world's biggest scientific experiment, the Large Hadron Collider, will switch-on within weeks. Particle collisions should begin in August or September 2008. Thousands of scientists have spent more than a decade building the Collider at the European Centre for Nuclear Research in Geneva. The equipment is in a 27 km tunnel 100 meters beneath Switzerland and France. Atoms will race around at virtually the speed of light in an atmosphere colder than outer space. The millions of collisions will create temperatures 100,000 times hotter than the sun. Scientists hope that they will uncover secrets about the universe's structure and reveal more about dark matter. Source: http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91221-1315292,00.html (Reliability: 8)
Comment: Some individuals fear that the collider will create black holes and swallow up the planet, destroying life on Earth. However, scientists have dismissed such claims. A great deal of research, money, and brain power has gone into this project, making it more likely to succeed than the average science experiment. However, science projects do not always work. According to one scientist, if the project fails, "We will have assembled the world's most expensive piece of modern art."
SKY NEWS (LONDON)—The world's biggest scientific experiment, the Large Hadron Collider, will switch-on within weeks. Particle collisions should begin in August or September 2008. Thousands of scientists have spent more than a decade building the Collider at the European Centre for Nuclear Research in Geneva. The equipment is in a 27 km tunnel 100 meters beneath Switzerland and France. Atoms will race around at virtually the speed of light in an atmosphere colder than outer space. The millions of collisions will create temperatures 100,000 times hotter than the sun. Scientists hope that they will uncover secrets about the universe's structure and reveal more about dark matter. Source: http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91221-1315292,00.html (Reliability: 8)
Comment: Some individuals fear that the collider will create black holes and swallow up the planet, destroying life on Earth. However, scientists have dismissed such claims. A great deal of research, money, and brain power has gone into this project, making it more likely to succeed than the average science experiment. However, science projects do not always work. According to one scientist, if the project fails, "We will have assembled the world's most expensive piece of modern art."
Bolivia Referendum Exposes Rift Between Rich, Poor
DOI 7 May 2008
REUTERS (SANTA CRUZ)-The cry for autonomy is strong in Bolivia's wealthy Santa Cruz province, but the poorest people here see the movement as a tactic by the rich to undercut leftist President Evo Morales. Santa Cruz voted for autonomy from the central government on Sunday in an unprecedented referendum widely seen as a rejection of Morales' policies and a challenge to his rule. A champion of indigenous rights, land reform and state control of the economy, Morales took power in 2006 and has the support of poor indigenous groups of the Andes, but he is increasingly unpopular in Bolivia's lush eastern lowlands.
Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN0748671220080507
(Reliability: 8)
REUTERS (SANTA CRUZ)-The cry for autonomy is strong in Bolivia's wealthy Santa Cruz province, but the poorest people here see the movement as a tactic by the rich to undercut leftist President Evo Morales. Santa Cruz voted for autonomy from the central government on Sunday in an unprecedented referendum widely seen as a rejection of Morales' policies and a challenge to his rule. A champion of indigenous rights, land reform and state control of the economy, Morales took power in 2006 and has the support of poor indigenous groups of the Andes, but he is increasingly unpopular in Bolivia's lush eastern lowlands.
Source: http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/idINN0748671220080507
(Reliability: 8)
Guyana Plans To Join South American Defense
DOI 2 May 2008
PRENSA LATINA (GEORGETOWN)-The Government of Guyana confirmed its intention to join the South American Defense Council, promoted by Brazil.
Source: http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7BD2058961-C3EE-495F-9194-C380DF1A8B63%7D)&language=EN
(Reliability: 6)
PRENSA LATINA (GEORGETOWN)-The Government of Guyana confirmed its intention to join the South American Defense Council, promoted by Brazil.
The head of the presidential secretariat Roger Luncheon told journalists that the initiative does not envisage a military coalition, but a mechanism to strengthen the struggle for the defense of countries of the area. This is not a military alliance, but a tool to handle a variety of issues regarding security, he said.
Luncheon announced that the Guyanese government accepted an invitation from Brazil to attend the conference of South American nations scheduled for May 23.Source: http://www.plenglish.com/article.asp?ID=%7BD2058961-C3EE-495F-9194-C380DF1A8B63%7D)&language=EN
(Reliability: 6)
08 May 2008
Telecom Egypt Agrees To Consortium Deal For Cable System Construction
DOI 07 May 2008
AFRIK.COM (PARIS)- Egypt’s landline operator Telecom Egypt (TE) said in a statement on 07 May 2008 that they will help construct a USD 700 million undersea cable system that links Europe, the Middle East and India. The deal is part of a global consortium. The statement said that the Europe/India Gateway (EIG) would "significantly enhance capacity and diversity between the countries of these regions." It added that it also would provide interconnection with other cable systems already in place that connect to Europe, Asia, Africa and North America. TE hopes that the 9,000-mile system will become operational by the second quarter of 2010 and will link together 13 nations and three continents. Source: http://en.afrik.com/news11878.html (Reliability: 7.5)
Comment: The announcement comes after cables were severed earlier this year that caused Internet outages across the Middle East and parts of India. Egypt was without full connection to the Net for almost two weeks Companies across the region complained that action was not taken immediately, which threatened major losses. The new consortium agreement hopes that the cable system will help prevent future outages.
AFRIK.COM (PARIS)- Egypt’s landline operator Telecom Egypt (TE) said in a statement on 07 May 2008 that they will help construct a USD 700 million undersea cable system that links Europe, the Middle East and India. The deal is part of a global consortium. The statement said that the Europe/India Gateway (EIG) would "significantly enhance capacity and diversity between the countries of these regions." It added that it also would provide interconnection with other cable systems already in place that connect to Europe, Asia, Africa and North America. TE hopes that the 9,000-mile system will become operational by the second quarter of 2010 and will link together 13 nations and three continents. Source: http://en.afrik.com/news11878.html (Reliability: 7.5)
Comment: The announcement comes after cables were severed earlier this year that caused Internet outages across the Middle East and parts of India. Egypt was without full connection to the Net for almost two weeks Companies across the region complained that action was not taken immediately, which threatened major losses. The new consortium agreement hopes that the cable system will help prevent future outages.
05 May 2008
Chinese Officials Meet With Dalai Lama’s Representatives
DOI 05 May 2008
NYT (BEIJING) — In their first direct talks since the outbreak of violence in Tibet in March, Chinese officials met with representatives of the Dalai Lama on Sunday, although it was unclear whether there was any progress in easing tensions between Beijing and the exiled Tibetan leader. According to Xinhua, the official Chinese news agency, the daylong talks, in the southern city of Shenzhen, mostly involved finger-wagging and a warning that future dialogue would be fruitless unless the Dalai Lama ceased advocating Tibetan independence. They also urged him to stop “disrupting and sabotaging” the upcoming Olympic Games. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/05/05/world/asia/05tibet.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss (Source Reliability: 8)
02 May 2008
US Offers USD 3 Million To Support Azerbaijan Presidential Election
DOI 01 May 2008
TREND NEWS (BAKU)—The United States government has allocated USD 3 million to support an open and democratic presidential election in Azerbaijan for October 2008. According to Anne E. Derse, US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, “The funds have been allocated not for any political parties or organizations, but to improve the situation in the sphere of freedom of speech and the election situation in the country.” Derse called upon all political parties in Azerbaijan to participate in the upcoming presidential elections. The ambassador hoped that a conflict among political parties over amendments in the Election Code could be solved before the election. Source: http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=1189267&lang=EN
(Reliability: 7)
Analysis: The Popular Front, Liberal and Citizen and Development parties, united in the Azadlig bloc, stated that they would boycott the elections if the country could not resolve certain election commission issues. American involvement in the election is likely to trigger charges of fraud and protests from opposition Azerbaijani political parties. (Analytic Confidence: 5)
TREND NEWS (BAKU)—The United States government has allocated USD 3 million to support an open and democratic presidential election in Azerbaijan for October 2008. According to Anne E. Derse, US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, “The funds have been allocated not for any political parties or organizations, but to improve the situation in the sphere of freedom of speech and the election situation in the country.” Derse called upon all political parties in Azerbaijan to participate in the upcoming presidential elections. The ambassador hoped that a conflict among political parties over amendments in the Election Code could be solved before the election. Source: http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=1189267&lang=EN
(Reliability: 7)
Analysis: The Popular Front, Liberal and Citizen and Development parties, united in the Azadlig bloc, stated that they would boycott the elections if the country could not resolve certain election commission issues. American involvement in the election is likely to trigger charges of fraud and protests from opposition Azerbaijani political parties. (Analytic Confidence: 5)
Western Sahara: Security Council Extends UN Mission For Another Year
DOI 30 April 2008
UN NEWS SERVICE (NEW YORK)- The Security Council extended until 30 April 2009 the mandate of the United Nations mission in Western Sahara (MINURSO), tasked with monitoring the ceasefire between Morocco and the Frente Polisario and organizing a referendum on self-determination. In a unanimously adopted resolution, the Council called on the parties to enter into "a more intensive and substantive phase of negotiations" to resolve their long-running dispute. Morocco holds that its sovereignty over Western Sahara should be recognized, while the Frente Polisario's position is that the Territory's final status should be decided in a referendum that includes independence as an option. Source: http://www0.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=26524&Cr=western&Cr1=sahara (Reliability: 9)
UN NEWS SERVICE (NEW YORK)- The Security Council extended until 30 April 2009 the mandate of the United Nations mission in Western Sahara (MINURSO), tasked with monitoring the ceasefire between Morocco and the Frente Polisario and organizing a referendum on self-determination. In a unanimously adopted resolution, the Council called on the parties to enter into "a more intensive and substantive phase of negotiations" to resolve their long-running dispute. Morocco holds that its sovereignty over Western Sahara should be recognized, while the Frente Polisario's position is that the Territory's final status should be decided in a referendum that includes independence as an option. Source: http://www0.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=26524&Cr=western&Cr1=sahara (Reliability: 9)
01 May 2008
Kosovo To Get New Passports
DOI 01 May 2008
NEW KOSOVA REPORT (SWEDEN)—In July 2008, the Republic of Kosovo will start printing new passports and other personal documents that will replace those that the United Nations Mission In Kosovo (UNMIK) issued during the last nine years. According to Kosovo Interior Minister, Zenun Pajaziti, the documents will have the highest security standards in the region. Since 1999, Kosovo citizens used passports from the former-Yugoslavia, or its two later iterations of Serbia and Montenegro and finally Serbia, as well as travel documents that the UN mission issued. Currently, approximately 40 countries recognize the new Kosovo.
Source: http://www.newkosovareport.com/20080501920/Politics/Kosovo-to-get-new-passports.html (Reliability: 7)
NEW KOSOVA REPORT (SWEDEN)—In July 2008, the Republic of Kosovo will start printing new passports and other personal documents that will replace those that the United Nations Mission In Kosovo (UNMIK) issued during the last nine years. According to Kosovo Interior Minister, Zenun Pajaziti, the documents will have the highest security standards in the region. Since 1999, Kosovo citizens used passports from the former-Yugoslavia, or its two later iterations of Serbia and Montenegro and finally Serbia, as well as travel documents that the UN mission issued. Currently, approximately 40 countries recognize the new Kosovo.
Source: http://www.newkosovareport.com/20080501920/Politics/Kosovo-to-get-new-passports.html (Reliability: 7)
Bosnia To Sign European Union Deal On 26 May
DOI 30 April 2008
BALKAN INSIGHT (BRUSSELS)—Bosnia and Herzegovina will sign a key European Union (EU) pre-membership deal on 26 May 2008. The EU originally planned the deal, known as the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) for the end of April, but it will not be ready until the next council meeting on 26 May. Bosnia passed a series of highly-contested police reforms, a requirement to advance in the EU integration process. The goal of the police reform laws is to bring some harmony to the law-enforcement systems in Bosnia, which previously existed as two virtually independent entities.
Source: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/9772/
(Reliability: 8)
BALKAN INSIGHT (BRUSSELS)—Bosnia and Herzegovina will sign a key European Union (EU) pre-membership deal on 26 May 2008. The EU originally planned the deal, known as the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) for the end of April, but it will not be ready until the next council meeting on 26 May. Bosnia passed a series of highly-contested police reforms, a requirement to advance in the EU integration process. The goal of the police reform laws is to bring some harmony to the law-enforcement systems in Bosnia, which previously existed as two virtually independent entities.
Source: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/9772/
(Reliability: 8)
29 April 2008
Iraq Struggle Unfolds In Peaceful Protest And Violent Attacks in Sadr City
DOI 28 April 2008
NYT (BAGHDAD) - The latest episode in the struggle between the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr and and the Iraqi government unfolded Sunday, 27 April 2008 on the streets of Sadr city, where member of Parliament demonstrated peacefully as while clashes occurred a few blocks away. The mix of peaceful protest and armed attacks is characteristic of the many levels on which the Sadr movement and the government are locked in an all-out fight for political advantage. At stake is the outcome of October 2008 provincial elections in which other Shiite parties in the government stand to lose seats to Mr. Sadr’s supporters. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/world/middleeast/28iraq.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
(Reliability: 8.5)
Comment: Most of the members of Parliament who were demonstrating were not members of the warring Shiite factions; instead they were lobbying to improve the deplorable living conditions in Sadr City, a Baghdad suburb controlled by Moktada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. American forces have been fighting militiamen there for over a month, resulting in the cessation of basic municipal services such as garbage pickup.
NYT (BAGHDAD) - The latest episode in the struggle between the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr and and the Iraqi government unfolded Sunday, 27 April 2008 on the streets of Sadr city, where member of Parliament demonstrated peacefully as while clashes occurred a few blocks away. The mix of peaceful protest and armed attacks is characteristic of the many levels on which the Sadr movement and the government are locked in an all-out fight for political advantage. At stake is the outcome of October 2008 provincial elections in which other Shiite parties in the government stand to lose seats to Mr. Sadr’s supporters. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/world/middleeast/28iraq.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
(Reliability: 8.5)
Comment: Most of the members of Parliament who were demonstrating were not members of the warring Shiite factions; instead they were lobbying to improve the deplorable living conditions in Sadr City, a Baghdad suburb controlled by Moktada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. American forces have been fighting militiamen there for over a month, resulting in the cessation of basic municipal services such as garbage pickup.
Iranian President's Visit Is A Test For India
DOI 30 April 2008
NYT (NEW DELHI) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Ne
w Delhi Tuesday, 30 April 2008. An Indian official described the meeting as a "high visibility visit" with a slim chance of tangible outcomes. As the United States presses India to exert greater pressure on Iran to limit it's nuclear program, the government of Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh is under increasing pressure from it's political critics at home to assert it's independence from the US. Iran has become the perfect proxy. Lalit Mansingh stated, "It is good for the government to be seen taking a stand that the US may not like ". Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/world/asia/30india.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
(Reliability: 8.5)
Comment: India would like to maintain good relations with Iran for other reasons as well. Iran is the second largest supplier of oil to energy starved India, as well as potential future supplier of natural gas. India also has a substantial community of Shiite Muslims loyal to the Iranian Ayatollah.
NYT (NEW DELHI) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Ne
w Delhi Tuesday, 30 April 2008. An Indian official described the meeting as a "high visibility visit" with a slim chance of tangible outcomes. As the United States presses India to exert greater pressure on Iran to limit it's nuclear program, the government of Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh is under increasing pressure from it's political critics at home to assert it's independence from the US. Iran has become the perfect proxy. Lalit Mansingh stated, "It is good for the government to be seen taking a stand that the US may not like ". Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/world/asia/30india.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin(Reliability: 8.5)
Comment: India would like to maintain good relations with Iran for other reasons as well. Iran is the second largest supplier of oil to energy starved India, as well as potential future supplier of natural gas. India also has a substantial community of Shiite Muslims loyal to the Iranian Ayatollah.
28 April 2008
Strikes and Rebel Actions Cut Nigerian Crude Output By Nearly 50%, Record Hikes Almost Certain, Price Relief Unlikley In 2008
DOI 28 April 2008
REUTERS (LONDON) - Exxon Mobil has shut nearly all its Nigerian oil production, totaling 
around 770,000 barrels per day (bpd), due to a workers' strike. This represents nearly 40 % of total Nigerian output, and comes after a series of attacks this month by militants in the Niger Delta which has shut-in an additional 169,000 bpd from Royal Dutch Shell (8% Nigerian output). These problems in Nigeria, the world's eighth-biggest oil exporter, helped push oil prices to a record high near $120 a barrel on Monday. SOURCE: http://africa.reuters.com/currencies/news/usnBAN843223.html
Analysis: Problems in the Niger Delta are a long way from being resolved, and labour and rebel groups seem to hold the initiative. The consensus from the International Energy Forum meeting in Rome on 20 April 2008 was that tight supply conditions (and hence inflationary pressures on most world economies) would persist for the remainder of 2008. (Analytic Confidence: 8)
Security Council To Hear Zimbabwean Opposition Complaint This Week, Sanctions Motion Likely
DOI 28 April 2008
SOUTH AFRICAN PRESS ASSOCIATION (HARARE)--Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Secretary-General Tendai Biti will take MDC's claim of victory in last month's election over President Robert Mugabe to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) this week (likely Wednesday morning). Biti will almost certainly say that MDC will not participate in an election runoff, according to MDC sources (NFI); as well as request a UN Special Envoy to assist the South African Development Community (SADC) to resolve the increasingly violent issue. Source: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/africa/news/article_1402162.php/Zimbabwe_opposition_to_brief_UN_Security_Council__2nd_Roundup
Analysis: The SADC region is hardening it stance to Mugabe following China's recall of the arms ship AnYue Jin. Last week US Special envoy for Africa, Jendayi Fraser, went on the record that MDC won the election, and in favor of arms sanctions against Zimbabwe, which was echoed by the UK. Despite increasing public pressure to stop supporting Mugabe's regime, China (UNSC Permanent Member, and primary Zimbabwean arms supplier) and South Africa (UNSC President - April) are unlikely to allow an arms embargo to pass. (Analytic Confidence: 6)
SOUTH AFRICAN PRESS ASSOCIATION (HARARE)--Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Secretary-General Tendai Biti will take MDC's claim of victory in last month's election over President Robert Mugabe to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) this week (likely Wednesday morning). Biti will almost certainly say that MDC will not participate in an election runoff, according to MDC sources (NFI); as well as request a UN Special Envoy to assist the South African Development Community (SADC) to resolve the increasingly violent issue. Source: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/africa/news/article_1402162.php/Zimbabwe_opposition_to_brief_UN_Security_Council__2nd_Roundup
Analysis: The SADC region is hardening it stance to Mugabe following China's recall of the arms ship AnYue Jin. Last week US Special envoy for Africa, Jendayi Fraser, went on the record that MDC won the election, and in favor of arms sanctions against Zimbabwe, which was echoed by the UK. Despite increasing public pressure to stop supporting Mugabe's regime, China (UNSC Permanent Member, and primary Zimbabwean arms supplier) and South Africa (UNSC President - April) are unlikely to allow an arms embargo to pass. (Analytic Confidence: 6)
26 April 2008
15 Special Police Units To Provide World Summit Security
DOI 24 April 2008
ANDINA (LIMA)--Over fifteen special police units of the Peruvian National Police (PNP) will ensure security and public order across the country before, during, and after the world summits. Some of the Special Police Units are the APEC General Command, the Police Operations Executive Directorate (DIREOP), the Anti Terrorism Directorate (DIRCOTE), Crime Investigation Directorate (DIRINCRI) and the Special Operations Directorate (DIROES), among others. Local authorities and a special team of police officers have been preparing for two years to host the world summits. Police units have looked to previous APEC and EU-LAC host countries for advice on security matters. PNP’s general director, Octavio Salazar, pointed out that 94 thousand 500 police officers will be working night and day to provide security during the major events. Source: http://www.livinginperu.com/news-6254-apec-peru-2008-apec-eu-lac-peru-2008-summits-daily-update
(Reliability: 8)
ANDINA (LIMA)--Over fifteen special police units of the Peruvian National Police (PNP) will ensure security and public order across the country before, during, and after the world summits. Some of the Special Police Units are the APEC General Command, the Police Operations Executive Directorate (DIREOP), the Anti Terrorism Directorate (DIRCOTE), Crime Investigation Directorate (DIRINCRI) and the Special Operations Directorate (DIROES), among others. Local authorities and a special team of police officers have been preparing for two years to host the world summits. Police units have looked to previous APEC and EU-LAC host countries for advice on security matters. PNP’s general director, Octavio Salazar, pointed out that 94 thousand 500 police officers will be working night and day to provide security during the major events. Source: http://www.livinginperu.com/news-6254-apec-peru-2008-apec-eu-lac-peru-2008-summits-daily-update
(Reliability: 8)
25 April 2008
Egypt Could Become Major Gold Producer In Next Decade
DOI 24 April 2008
RIA NOVOSTI (CAIRO)- Egypt could become a leading gold producer within the next decade following the discovery of large reserves in the country's Eastern Desert, the Le Progres Egyptian newspaper said Monday, April 21. Proven reserves at the Wadi Hudain deposit alone exceed 50 million ounces, worth around $50 billion. Amgad Ghoneim, a senior ministry official, said under a development program gold output should reach 30 metric tons annually in the next ten years. "At the first stage in the initial two years we will produce three metric tons near Hemesh and seven metric tons near al-Sukari," Ghoneim said, adding that the amount would be increased to 18 metric tons in the future. Source: http://mnweekly.ru/world/20080424/55325518.html (Reliability: 5.5)
Comment: According to Ghoneim, Gold production will depend on the number of companies working in the country. Currently, two foreign companies (NFI) are active in the exploration of the gold, while nine other companies are active in the process (NFI).
Ethiopia Launches Commodities Exchange
DOI 24 April 2008
AFP (ADDIS ABABA) — Ethiopia launched a commodities exchange market, aimed at boosting fair trade and stabilizing its food market on 24 April. Initial trading on the Ethiopia Commodity Exchange was limited to maize and haricot beans on the 24th, but is set to expand to coffee, sesame, teff (a staple grain in Ethiopia) and wheat. Ethiopian Finance Minister Mekonnen Manyazewal said the exchange represented "a new era" that would level the playing field for smaller farmers. Ethiopia earned over one billion dollars in the past nine months from exports of coffee, cereals, spices and other agricultural products. Source: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5hx9JtHoqXrmt70jvUsQ86-S1e6vA (Reliability: 8.5)
Comment: Ethiopia is among Africa's least urbanized countries, and three-quarters of the country's 78 million people are dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods. While a small number of traders will control trade on the exchange initially, the government is hoping the biggest beneficiaries are Ethiopia's farmers.
'Mugabe's Tsunami' of Refugees Flees Into South Africa
DOI 21 April 08
NEW YORK TIMES (NEW YORK) - Over 1,000 Zimbabwean refugees per day are fleeing political violence,
'torture camps,' and politically-manipulated food shortages in opposition areas into South Africa. Despite increased border patrolling, refugees are largely able to break through and find shelter with other Zimbabwean emigrants in Northern Province, who tended to be migrant workers. Now many are women with children seeking food and physical security. The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) claims that 400 supporters had been arrested, 500 attacked, 10 killed and 3,000 families displaced. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/21/world/africa/21zimbabwe.html?ref=africa (Reliability: 8)
Iran Holds Parliamentary Polls
DOI 25 April 2008
AL JAZEERA (TEHRAN)-Iranians are voting in the second round of legislative elections which Al-Jazeera expects to further tighten the conservatives' grip on parliament. Around 21 million people are eligible to vote on Friday, 25 April 2008 to choose MPs (Members of Parliament) for the 82
seats in the 290-seat chamber which were not decided outright in the first round on 14 March 2008. The reformists' chances over the two rounds were harmed by a significant number of their candidates being disqualified. No official figures for the share of seats in parliament were published after the first round but of the 209 MPs who were elected at least 130 were conservatives. Under Iranian election law candidates needed at least 25 per cent of the vote to be elected outright in the first round. Source: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/C6E52D0A-CADB-4C1B-8B96-35FA672B3953.htm
(Reliability: 8)
Analysis: It is unlikely the conservatives in the Iranian parliament will be willing to work with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on matters relating to the Iranian economy. Although President Ahmadinejad is a member of the conservative party, his economic policies have put him at odds with many in his party, and many conservatives blame President Ahmadinejad for Iran's high inflation and other economic problems. (Analytic Confidence: 7)
AL JAZEERA (TEHRAN)-Iranians are voting in the second round of legislative elections which Al-Jazeera expects to further tighten the conservatives' grip on parliament. Around 21 million people are eligible to vote on Friday, 25 April 2008 to choose MPs (Members of Parliament) for the 82
seats in the 290-seat chamber which were not decided outright in the first round on 14 March 2008. The reformists' chances over the two rounds were harmed by a significant number of their candidates being disqualified. No official figures for the share of seats in parliament were published after the first round but of the 209 MPs who were elected at least 130 were conservatives. Under Iranian election law candidates needed at least 25 per cent of the vote to be elected outright in the first round. Source: http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/C6E52D0A-CADB-4C1B-8B96-35FA672B3953.htm(Reliability: 8)
Analysis: It is unlikely the conservatives in the Iranian parliament will be willing to work with President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on matters relating to the Iranian economy. Although President Ahmadinejad is a member of the conservative party, his economic policies have put him at odds with many in his party, and many conservatives blame President Ahmadinejad for Iran's high inflation and other economic problems. (Analytic Confidence: 7)
24 April 2008
Turkmenistan To Suppy EU With Natural Gas In 2009
DOI 22 April 2008
UNITED PRESS INTERNATIONAL (WASHINGTON)–
Comment: Although Turkmenistan has committed to supplying gas directly to the EU, bypassing Russia, it is unclear how both parties intend to deliver the product. The necessary pipeline infrastructure for delivery of natural gas straight from Turkmenistan to the EU, specifically the Trans-Caspian Pipeline (TCP), will not be available by 2009. Some EU members have proposed liquefying the natural gas and shipping it via tanker across the Caspian Sea as an alternative.
Sudan Sends Delegation To Discuss Britain Offer of Darfur Conference
DOI 19 April 2008
SUDAN TIMES (KHARTOUM)— A Sudanese high level delegation will visit London by the end of the month to hold talks with the British officials over Darfur peace process. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on April 12 he was in contact with the Sudanese government and rebel groups to host peace talks to end the five year crisis in Darfur. The Sudanese Foreign minister Deng Alor flanked by the presidential advisor Mustfa Osman Ismail will pay a visit to the British capital carrying a written message from President Omar Bashir, the British Prime Minister Cordon Brown. The two-day visit will take place on 29-30 April. Source: http://www.sudantribune.com/spip.php?article26818 (Reliability: 7.5)
Analysis: It is highly likely that the opposing rebel groups responsible for the humanitarian crisis in the Darfur region of Sudan will not recognize any agreements that come out of a Darfur Conference in the United Kingdom. According to the Sudan Times, some rebel groups have already ignored Britain's offer. The rebel reaction to a conference not involving the rebel groups will likely mirror that of the Dakar Agreement signed by the Presidents of Chad and Sudan on 13 March 2008. (Analytic Confidence: 8)
First Nations Will Likely Target Vancouver Olympics During Protest
DOI 21 April 2008
European Union Parliament Backs Fast Track Macedonia Access
DOI 24 April 2008
Serbia To Delay Ratifying Energy Deal
DOI 24 April 2008
23 April 2008
Ukraine Speeds Preparations Before Co-hosting Euro 2012
DOI: 22 April 2008
REUTERS (KIEV)–Ukraine will co-host Euro 2012, the European Soccer Championships, with Poland in April 2012. Ukraine is under pressure to speed up preparations for the championships ahead of a Union of European Football Association (UEFA) executive board meeting in June 2008. The UEDA expects Ukraine to resolve problems over the construction and upgrade of stadiums, accommodation, airport, railways, and road transportation. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who is touring cities due to host matches, Donetsk, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kiev, singled out airports as the most critical issue and urged ministers to reach agreements with local authorities to improve them. Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldFootballNews/idUKL2287761820080422. (Source Reliability: 9)
Analysis: It is likely President Yushchenko is vigorously preparing Ukraine for Euro 2012 because he sees it as an opportunity to demonstrate Ukraine's potential to integrate into the west. If Ukraine successfully co-hosts these games it is likely to encourage both Ukrainians and western Europe to support Ukrainian membership in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). (Analytic Confidence: 7)
REUTERS (KIEV)–Ukraine will co-host Euro 2012, the European Soccer Championships, with Poland in April 2012. Ukraine is under pressure to speed up preparations for the championships ahead of a Union of European Football Association (UEFA) executive board meeting in June 2008. The UEDA expects Ukraine to resolve problems over the construction and upgrade of stadiums, accommodation, airport, railways, and road transportation. Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko, who is touring cities due to host matches, Donetsk, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk and Kiev, singled out airports as the most critical issue and urged ministers to reach agreements with local authorities to improve them. Source: http://uk.reuters.com/article/worldFootballNews/idUKL2287761820080422. (Source Reliability: 9)
Analysis: It is likely President Yushchenko is vigorously preparing Ukraine for Euro 2012 because he sees it as an opportunity to demonstrate Ukraine's potential to integrate into the west. If Ukraine successfully co-hosts these games it is likely to encourage both Ukrainians and western Europe to support Ukrainian membership in the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). (Analytic Confidence: 7)
Surging Penis-Theft Panic Leaves Rebels Choking
DOI Apr 22, 2008
KINSHASA (REUTERS)--Police in Kinshasa arrested 13 suspected sorcerers accused of using black magic to steal or shrink men's penises. Rumors of penis theft started getting around last week in Kinshasa, DR Congo's sprawling capital, leading to a rash of beatings and attempted lynchings. Penis theft panic quickly dominated radio call-in shows, with listeners advised to beware of fellow passengers in communal taxis wearing gold rings. Victims claimed that sorcerers simply touched them to make their genitals shrink or disappear, in an attempt to extort cash for a cure. "We've had a number of attempted lynchings. ... You see them covered in marks after being beaten," Kinshasa's police chief, Jean-Dieudonne Oleko, told Reuters. Some Kinshasa residents accuse a separatist sect from nearby Bas-Congo province of being behind the witchcraft in revenge for a recent government crackdown on their members. Source:http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2290323220080422?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0 (Reliability: 9)
KINSHASA (REUTERS)--Police in Kinshasa arrested 13 suspected sorcerers accused of using black magic to steal or shrink men's penises. Rumors of penis theft started getting around last week in Kinshasa, DR Congo's sprawling capital, leading to a rash of beatings and attempted lynchings. Penis theft panic quickly dominated radio call-in shows, with listeners advised to beware of fellow passengers in communal taxis wearing gold rings. Victims claimed that sorcerers simply touched them to make their genitals shrink or disappear, in an attempt to extort cash for a cure. "We've had a number of attempted lynchings. ... You see them covered in marks after being beaten," Kinshasa's police chief, Jean-Dieudonne Oleko, told Reuters. Some Kinshasa residents accuse a separatist sect from nearby Bas-Congo province of being behind the witchcraft in revenge for a recent government crackdown on their members. Source:http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL2290323220080422?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0 (Reliability: 9)
Palestinian Conference To Raise USD 600 Million For Gaza
DOI 23 April 2008
REUTERS (RAMALLAH)-A Palestinian hosted investment conference hopes to raise USD 600 million for the Gaza Strip. The Palestine Investment Conference opens in the West Bank city of Bethlehem 21-23 May 2008. Hassan Abu Libdeh, chief executive officer of the conference, stated that he expects to raise USD 1.5 billion; USD 600 million would be designated for the Gaza Strip while the other USD 900 million would be spent on projects in the occupied West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem. The conference is part of efforts to boost the Palestinian economy as Palestinians take part in US-backed peace talks with Israel. Abu Libdeh said many of the planned "mega-projects" the conference hopes to promote would be slated for the Gaza Strip and 100 investors from the territory would attend the gathering. Under pressure from the United States, which wants to see a deal on Palestinian statehood by year's end, Israel said this week it would ease access to Bethlehem for the conference. Abu Libdeh said 1,200 foreign and Arab investors would also attend the conference. Asked if Israel was invited, he said, "The whole world is invited." Source: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-palestinians-conference.html
(Reliability: 8.5)
REUTERS (RAMALLAH)-A Palestinian hosted investment conference hopes to raise USD 600 million for the Gaza Strip. The Palestine Investment Conference opens in the West Bank city of Bethlehem 21-23 May 2008. Hassan Abu Libdeh, chief executive officer of the conference, stated that he expects to raise USD 1.5 billion; USD 600 million would be designated for the Gaza Strip while the other USD 900 million would be spent on projects in the occupied West Bank and Arab East Jerusalem. The conference is part of efforts to boost the Palestinian economy as Palestinians take part in US-backed peace talks with Israel. Abu Libdeh said many of the planned "mega-projects" the conference hopes to promote would be slated for the Gaza Strip and 100 investors from the territory would attend the gathering. Under pressure from the United States, which wants to see a deal on Palestinian statehood by year's end, Israel said this week it would ease access to Bethlehem for the conference. Abu Libdeh said 1,200 foreign and Arab investors would also attend the conference. Asked if Israel was invited, he said, "The whole world is invited." Source: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/world/international-palestinians-conference.html
(Reliability: 8.5)
22 April 2008
Cambodian General Election Set For 27 July 2008
DOI 21 April 2008
AFP (PHNOM PENH)—Cambodians will go to the polls on July 27 for a general election in which more than eight million people are expected to cast their vote, an election commission official said Monday. Incumbent Prime Minster Hun Sen -- the longest-serving elected premier in Southeast Asia with 23 years in power -- and his ruling Cambodian People's Party (CPP) are widely expected to win the poll. Tep Nitha, secretary general of the National Election Committee (NEC), said that 8,124,391 people registered to vote before the February deadline. Source: http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5h6FqdAWkPWgzEb8D32FAlejcfddw (Reliability: 7)
Japan To Take Up Rising Food Prices At G8 Summit
DOI 22 April 2008
THOMSON FINANCIAL (TOKYO)--Japan's Farm Minister said 22 April he will bring up food security in talks at the World Trade Organization and G8, fearing that soaring grain prices will hit importers. As demand shoots up, producers such as China, Argentina and Russia are looking at tightening grain exports to ensure domestic supply. In letters to UN chief Ban Ki-moon and World Band president Robert Zoellick, Japan asked for help in addressing the issue at the G8 summit, which groups Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States. Source: http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/04/22/afx4916779.html (Reliability: 8)
THOMSON FINANCIAL (TOKYO)--Japan's Farm Minister said 22 April he will bring up food security in talks at the World Trade Organization and G8, fearing that soaring grain prices will hit importers. As demand shoots up, producers such as China, Argentina and Russia are looking at tightening grain exports to ensure domestic supply. In letters to UN chief Ban Ki-moon and World Band president Robert Zoellick, Japan asked for help in addressing the issue at the G8 summit, which groups Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia and the United States. Source: http://www.forbes.com/afxnewslimited/feeds/afx/2008/04/22/afx4916779.html (Reliability: 8)
Zambia Seeks To Block Arms For Zimbabwe
DOI 22 April 08
NYT (NEW YORK)--Zambia’s president, Levy Mwanawasa,
urged nations in the region to bar a Chinese ship carrying arms destined for Zimbabwe from entering their waters, saying the shipment could deepen the country’s election crisis.The Chinese ship, An Yue Jiang, was turned away from South Africa and was heading for Angola in the hope of docking there, Mozambique said Saturday. Mozambique did not allow it to enter its waters. “I hope this will be the case with all the countries because we don’t want a situation which will escalate” the tension in Zimbabwe even more, said Mr. Mwanawasa, who is also chairman of the Southern African Development Community regional grouping. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/world/africa/22zimbabwe.html?ref=africa (Reliability: 8)
Comment: Mugabe has a reputation of being a 'strong man' in the region, meaning that he readily uses or threatens to use the Zimbabwean Army domestically and internationally. This is evidenced by his repression of Matabeleland in the mid-/late 1980's, domestic political repression, and large deployment in the DR Congo war. An arms embargo, informal or sanctioned by a multilateral, reduces Mugabe's ability to threaten his neighbors, who would prefer a less belligerent and more stable Zimbabwe.
NYT (NEW YORK)--Zambia’s president, Levy Mwanawasa,
urged nations in the region to bar a Chinese ship carrying arms destined for Zimbabwe from entering their waters, saying the shipment could deepen the country’s election crisis.The Chinese ship, An Yue Jiang, was turned away from South Africa and was heading for Angola in the hope of docking there, Mozambique said Saturday. Mozambique did not allow it to enter its waters. “I hope this will be the case with all the countries because we don’t want a situation which will escalate” the tension in Zimbabwe even more, said Mr. Mwanawasa, who is also chairman of the Southern African Development Community regional grouping. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/22/world/africa/22zimbabwe.html?ref=africa (Reliability: 8)Comment: Mugabe has a reputation of being a 'strong man' in the region, meaning that he readily uses or threatens to use the Zimbabwean Army domestically and internationally. This is evidenced by his repression of Matabeleland in the mid-/late 1980's, domestic political repression, and large deployment in the DR Congo war. An arms embargo, informal or sanctioned by a multilateral, reduces Mugabe's ability to threaten his neighbors, who would prefer a less belligerent and more stable Zimbabwe.
20 April 2008
Chinese Peacekeeping Strategy in Liberia Clearly Focused On Chinese Interests
DOI 20 April 08
CHINAVIEW (BEIJING)--The seventh detachment of Chinese peacekeeping troops arrived in Liberia on 18 April, under the auspices of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNAMIL). The Chinese contribution focuses on assistance in transportation, road and bridge construction, and medical care. This detachment, like the previous one, is comprised of a 240-member transport battalion, a 275-member engineering battalion, and a 43-member medical team. Source: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-04/20/content_8016694.htm (Reliability: 8)
Comment: The Chinese contribution to UNAMIL is consistent with their initiative to secure access to raw materials from Africa (particularly timber in Liberia since China lost a lucrative concession with the fall of Robert Taylor's regime), as well as to reclaim some goodwill from the average Liberian. China imported most of the labor required for its previous logging operation from China and Malaysia, leaving many Liberians unemployed and angry.
CHINAVIEW (BEIJING)--The seventh detachment of Chinese peacekeeping troops arrived in Liberia on 18 April, under the auspices of the United Nations Mission in Liberia (UNAMIL). The Chinese contribution focuses on assistance in transportation, road and bridge construction, and medical care. This detachment, like the previous one, is comprised of a 240-member transport battalion, a 275-member engineering battalion, and a 43-member medical team. Source: http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2008-04/20/content_8016694.htm (Reliability: 8)
Comment: The Chinese contribution to UNAMIL is consistent with their initiative to secure access to raw materials from Africa (particularly timber in Liberia since China lost a lucrative concession with the fall of Robert Taylor's regime), as well as to reclaim some goodwill from the average Liberian. China imported most of the labor required for its previous logging operation from China and Malaysia, leaving many Liberians unemployed and angry.
Intense Fighting Likely To End Peace Deal In Burundi
DOI 18 April 2008
BBC (LONDON)--The incompletely implemented 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is under extreme pressure as Forces Nationales de Liberation (FNL: a major rebel group who are not signatories to the CPA) and government forces clashed around the capital, Bujumbura, for three days this week. Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7354005.stm
Analysis: FNL is the last major obstacle to a comprehensive peace agreement in Burundi. The government and international negotiators have been unable to satisfy FNL demands, or dislodge FNL's presence around Bujumbura. FNL's ability to recruit, organize, arm, and fight suggests leverage over other rebel groups. The perception of increasing FNL strength is likely to draw ex-rebels into the FNL fold, and likely broaden the conflict again. (Analytic Confidence: 6)
BBC (LONDON)--The incompletely implemented 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is under extreme pressure as Forces Nationales de Liberation (FNL: a major rebel group who are not signatories to the CPA) and government forces clashed around the capital, Bujumbura, for three days this week. Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7354005.stm
Analysis: FNL is the last major obstacle to a comprehensive peace agreement in Burundi. The government and international negotiators have been unable to satisfy FNL demands, or dislodge FNL's presence around Bujumbura. FNL's ability to recruit, organize, arm, and fight suggests leverage over other rebel groups. The perception of increasing FNL strength is likely to draw ex-rebels into the FNL fold, and likely broaden the conflict again. (Analytic Confidence: 6)
US Outpaces Chinese FDI in Mozambique in 2007
DOI 15 April 2008
AFROL NEWS (MASERU)--The United States maintained its lead in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mozambique, despite a very large increase in Chinese FDI in 2007. Chinese agriculture, forestry, and public works investment jumped from USD3m in 2003 to USD60m last year, moving China from ninth largest investor in Mozambique to sixth. Source: http://www.afrol.com/articles/28609 (Reliability: 6)
Comment: China's major interests in Africa are raw materials, as well as diplomatic support, particularly in United Nations chambers regarding Taiwan. China has waged a very effective public diplomacy, governement relations, and investment campaign in Africa since the 1990's, often outpacing and outmanoevering the United States. Not counting multilateral investments, the United States (USD281m) and Switzerland (USD170m) provided the largest FDI in 2007.
AFROL NEWS (MASERU)--The United States maintained its lead in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mozambique, despite a very large increase in Chinese FDI in 2007. Chinese agriculture, forestry, and public works investment jumped from USD3m in 2003 to USD60m last year, moving China from ninth largest investor in Mozambique to sixth. Source: http://www.afrol.com/articles/28609 (Reliability: 6)
Comment: China's major interests in Africa are raw materials, as well as diplomatic support, particularly in United Nations chambers regarding Taiwan. China has waged a very effective public diplomacy, governement relations, and investment campaign in Africa since the 1990's, often outpacing and outmanoevering the United States. Not counting multilateral investments, the United States (USD281m) and Switzerland (USD170m) provided the largest FDI in 2007.
18 April 2008
Taiwan To Monitor Hu Jintao’s Visit To Japan Next Month
DOI 19 April 2008
TAIPEI TIMES (TAIWAN)—Taiwan will closely monitor Chinese leader Hu Jintao’s upcoming visit to Japan. President-elect Ma Ying-jeou’s request to visit Japan prior to his inauguration next month is unlikely to happen. In his report to the legislature, Representative Koh Se-kai said Taiwan would keep a close tab on Hu’s trip to Japan from 6 May to 11 May to ascertain whether the leaders mention Taiwan’s status during the visit. Koh, a leading authority on Japanese politics, said China has been asking Japan to sign a fourth communiqué; stating that Japan agrees Taiwan is part of the People’s Republic of China, which Tokyo has long refused to do. Since Japan and Taiwan severed formal ties more than 30 years ago, Japan has never stated they support the “one China” policy. The Japanese position is that they “acknowledge” and “respect” China’s position on the issue of Taiwan, Koh said. The representative, however, offered assurances that despite Japan’s own unstable political climate, Taiwan-Japan ties should continue to remain strong and friendly. Source: http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2008/04/19/2003409691 (Reliability: 7)
Cambodia Presents Documents On ASEAN Charter’s Ratification To Secretariat
DOI 18 April 2008
ANTARA (JAKARTA)—Cambodian Ambassador to Indonesia Khem Bunneang on behalf of his government handed documents on his country's ratification of the ASEAN Charter to ASEAN Secretary General Surin Pitsuwan at the ASEAN Secretariat on 18 April. Cambodia is the sixth country that has ratified the ASEAN Charter after Singapore, Brunei Darussalam, Laos, Malaysia and Vietnam. Four other ASEAN member countries have yet to ratify the charter, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar and Thailand. Source: http://enews.mcot.net/view.php?id=3856 (Reliability: 7)
Comment: The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) holds annual meeting to discuss issues relevant to the development of Southeast Asian countries. Singapore hosted the 13th Annual ASEAN Summit from 18-22 November 2007.
Blocked Zimbabwean Arms Shipment Likley To Be Diverted to Maputo or Dar es Salaam
DOI 18 April 2008
REUTERS (JOHANNESBURG ) - A South African union has refused to unload arms (carrying nearly 3 million rounds of small arms and light weapons (SALW), about 3,500 mortars and mortar launchers, as well as 1,500 rockets for rocket-propelled grenades) from a Chinese ship destined for Zimbabwe, in a
politically charged move challenging President Thabo Mbeki's handling of relations with the neighboring state. The South African Transport and Allied Workers Union (SATAWU) said it would not unload the weapons in the port city of Durban because Mugabe's government might use them to crack down on opponents in the disputed election. Zimbabwe's response has been shrill, and the Chinese response was muted, deferring comment since 'they did not understand the situation.' Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/africa/article3772113.ece (Reliability: 9)
Analysis: Despite a South African High Court ruling preventing the government from blocking the shipment, civil society society groups are likely to prevent the military cargo from making its way over land to Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe is likely to send the An Yue Jiang to another port such as Maputo (Mozambique) or Dar es Salaam (Tanzania). (Confidence: 7)
Update: DOI 19 April 2008
NYT (NEW YORK) -- The An Yu
e Jiang and her cargo of SALW set sail for Maputo. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/19/world/africa/19zimbabwe.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1&th&emc=th (Reliability: 8)
Update 2: DOI 21 April 2008
ALLAFRICA.COM (CAPE TOWN) --Mozambiquean and Tanzanian governments have refused to allow the An Yue Jiang offload its cargo in their ports, Beeld (a South African paper) reported on Monday. The An Yue Jiang, was last headed up the south-west coast of Africa towards Angola, and South African union activists are attempting to stop the arms from being offloaded and delivered to President Robert Mugabe's government. Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/200804211124.html (Reliability 8)
US, Georgia Will Conduct Joint Military Drills Near Tbilisi In July 2008
DOI 18 April 2008
RIA NOVOSTI(TBILISI)–US and Georgian military forces will hold a joint-exercise, "Im
mediate Response 2008," near Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, in July 2008, according to the Georgian Defense Ministry. Around 2,000 personnel, mostly from the US but also from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine, will join Georgian troops in the exercises. The exercises will take place at several Georgian military sites including the Vaziani military base and the Poti naval base. Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080415/105155362.html. (Reliability: 6)
Analysis: It is highly likely this military exercise will cause Russia to escalate threats of supporting secessionist regions within Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia has been a delicate issue with the Russians because of its attempt to win a membership bid from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Before NATO denied Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP) on 3 April 2008, Russia threatened to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. While Russia was obviously threatened by the possibility of its southern neighbor joining NATO, it is almost certain Russia will feel far more threatened by joint US-Georgian military exercises on its door step. (Analytic Confidence: 9)
RIA NOVOSTI(TBILISI)–US and Georgian military forces will hold a joint-exercise, "Im
mediate Response 2008," near Georgia's capital, Tbilisi, in July 2008, according to the Georgian Defense Ministry. Around 2,000 personnel, mostly from the US but also from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine, will join Georgian troops in the exercises. The exercises will take place at several Georgian military sites including the Vaziani military base and the Poti naval base. Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080415/105155362.html. (Reliability: 6)Analysis: It is highly likely this military exercise will cause Russia to escalate threats of supporting secessionist regions within Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia has been a delicate issue with the Russians because of its attempt to win a membership bid from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Before NATO denied Georgia a Membership Action Plan (MAP) on 3 April 2008, Russia threatened to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. While Russia was obviously threatened by the possibility of its southern neighbor joining NATO, it is almost certain Russia will feel far more threatened by joint US-Georgian military exercises on its door step. (Analytic Confidence: 9)
17 April 2008
Algerian Ventures Sign $4.5 Billion PETCHEM Deals
DOI 14 April 2008
REUTERS (ALGIERS)-- According to APS news agency, Algeria's Sonatrach and Omani and Egyptian partners signed contracts with major construction companies on 14 April for two ammonia and urea projects worth a total of $4.5 billion. An Algerian-Omani joint venture called Al Aldjazairia Al Omania Lil Asmida signed an engineering, procurement and construction contract
with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build a factory costing $2.4 billion at Arzew, 600 kilometres (373 miles) west of the capital Algiers. The joint venture between Sonatrach and Suhail Bahwan Group Holding (SBGH) of Oman has said the plant will produce 4,000 tonnes of ammonia and 7,000 tonnes of urea per day. Algerian officials (NFI) say that the plant is due to come onstream in three and a half years (late 2011). APS added that a joint venture between Sonatrach and Egypt's Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) signed an engineering and construction contract with Germany's Uhde, the plant engineering unit of ThyssenKrupp, also for an ammonia and urea plant at Arzew worth $2.16 billion. The joint venture, called Sorfert Algerie, plans to produce 4,400 tonnes a day of ammonia and 3,450 tonnes a day of urea. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL1476691620080414 (Reliability: 8)
Analysis: It is highly likely that Algeria is investing heavily in petrochemicals in order to diversify the range of products for export and get more value from its energy supplies. The Algerian state-owned energy group, Sonatrach has discovered four new oil and gas condensates this past week, bringing their total finds to five for the year. Algeria pumps about 1.4 million barrels of oil per day and exports 62 billion cubic metres of gas a year, mostly to Europe. The existence of new Algerian Petrochemical sites will likely be a target of interest for terrorist attacks. The Al-Qaida Branch of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has a heavy presence in Algeria and regularly attacks Algerian governmental interests. (Analytic Confidence: 8.5)
REUTERS (ALGIERS)-- According to APS news agency, Algeria's Sonatrach and Omani and Egyptian partners signed contracts with major construction companies on 14 April for two ammonia and urea projects worth a total of $4.5 billion. An Algerian-Omani joint venture called Al Aldjazairia Al Omania Lil Asmida signed an engineering, procurement and construction contract
with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to build a factory costing $2.4 billion at Arzew, 600 kilometres (373 miles) west of the capital Algiers. The joint venture between Sonatrach and Suhail Bahwan Group Holding (SBGH) of Oman has said the plant will produce 4,000 tonnes of ammonia and 7,000 tonnes of urea per day. Algerian officials (NFI) say that the plant is due to come onstream in three and a half years (late 2011). APS added that a joint venture between Sonatrach and Egypt's Orascom Construction Industries (OCI) signed an engineering and construction contract with Germany's Uhde, the plant engineering unit of ThyssenKrupp, also for an ammonia and urea plant at Arzew worth $2.16 billion. The joint venture, called Sorfert Algerie, plans to produce 4,400 tonnes a day of ammonia and 3,450 tonnes a day of urea. Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSL1476691620080414 (Reliability: 8)Analysis: It is highly likely that Algeria is investing heavily in petrochemicals in order to diversify the range of products for export and get more value from its energy supplies. The Algerian state-owned energy group, Sonatrach has discovered four new oil and gas condensates this past week, bringing their total finds to five for the year. Algeria pumps about 1.4 million barrels of oil per day and exports 62 billion cubic metres of gas a year, mostly to Europe. The existence of new Algerian Petrochemical sites will likely be a target of interest for terrorist attacks. The Al-Qaida Branch of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has a heavy presence in Algeria and regularly attacks Algerian governmental interests. (Analytic Confidence: 8.5)
Egypt To Host Mideast "Mini-Summit" In May
DOI 12 April 2008
RIA NOVOSTI (CAIRO)-- According to Middle East News Agency (MENA), Egypt has officially confirmed that the Middle East 'mini-summit,' to be
attended by the US president, will take place in late May in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The agency quoted Hossam Zaki, a spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, as saying that it will probably be held on the fringes of the International Economic Forum, which opens in the Egyptian resort town on May 18. In addition to the U.S. president, the summit may be also attended by Israeli, Palestinian, Egyptian presidents and the king of Jordan. The key issue on the agenda will be the continuation of peace talks between Israeli and Palestine authorities, which were launched last year at a summit in the United States. Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080411/104882695.html (Reliability: 6.5)
RIA NOVOSTI (CAIRO)-- According to Middle East News Agency (MENA), Egypt has officially confirmed that the Middle East 'mini-summit,' to be
attended by the US president, will take place in late May in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. The agency quoted Hossam Zaki, a spokesman for the Egyptian Foreign Ministry, as saying that it will probably be held on the fringes of the International Economic Forum, which opens in the Egyptian resort town on May 18. In addition to the U.S. president, the summit may be also attended by Israeli, Palestinian, Egyptian presidents and the king of Jordan. The key issue on the agenda will be the continuation of peace talks between Israeli and Palestine authorities, which were launched last year at a summit in the United States. Source: http://en.rian.ru/world/20080411/104882695.html (Reliability: 6.5)United Nations Mission In Kosovo: Serb Elections In Kosovo Illegal
DOI 17 April 2008
NEW KOSOVA REPORT (SWEDEN)—According to United Nations Mission in Kosovo's (UNMIK) spokesperson Aleksandar Ivanko, Serb elections should not be held in Kosovo on 11 May 2008. According to Ivanko, United Nations (UN) Administrator Joachim Rücker is preparing a short answer for Serbia's Government, which insists that the Serb election should be held in the State of Kosovo. UN officials maintain that holding Serb elections in Kosovo violates resolution 1244, which put Kosovo under interim UN administration in 1999. Source: http://www.newkosovareport.com/20080417885/Politics/UNMIK-serb-elections-in-Kosovo-illegal.html (Reliability: 6.5)
Comment: Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in February 2008, and three dozen countries recognize Kosovo’s independence. Serbia’s decision to hold local elections in Kosovo indicates that Serbia ignores UN objections and still considers Kosovo a part of Serbia.
16 April 2008
Tight Security For Olympic Torch In China-Friendly Pakistan, India Next
DOI 16 April 2008 CBC (ISLAMABAD)—Authorities in Pakistan are taking no chances as the country hosts the latest leg of the Olympic torch relay Wednesday, 16 April 2008 lining the streets of the capital, Islamabad, with thousands of police and sniffer dogs. Pakistan is one of China’s closest international allies and both countries want to make sure the progress of the torch is not disrupted by pro-Tibet rallies of the type seen earlier in Europe and the United States. Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf stated no disruptions to the torch’s progress though his country would be allowed. The Olympic Torch is due in India on Thursday, 17 April 2008. Source: http://www.cbc.ca/world/story/2008/04/16/torch-pakistan.html (Reliability: 8)
India Set To Do Business With Nepal Maoists
DOI 16 April 2008
TIMES OF INDIA (NEW DELHI)—Senior government sources said that India’s ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shankar Mukherjee was in touch with the Maoists who on Tuesday 15 April, 2008 continued their winning spree in Nepal’s Assembly elections, adding that “we are ready to sit with them”. India can hope to derive benefit from the end of status quo since the monarchy, for long, had been hostile to India’s interests. To the extent the mandate for the Maoists can be interpreted as a “vote against Kathmandu”, India can expect fresh opportunities to repair ties which have frequently been strained by mutual suspicions. Unnamed sources state that the election in Nepal had helped achieve two goals that India was keen on – democratization and mainstreaming of Maoists. Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/India_set_to_do_business_with_Nepal_Maoists/articleshow/2954828.cms
(Reliability: 7.5)
Comment: The final results of the Nepal’s Constituent Assembly election are still unknown. According to the New York Times, no party was expected to win by a landslide; however, the Maoists are doing much better than expected. As of 15 April 2008, the Maoists have won 108 out of 196 directly elected legislative seats.
TIMES OF INDIA (NEW DELHI)—Senior government sources said that India’s ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shankar Mukherjee was in touch with the Maoists who on Tuesday 15 April, 2008 continued their winning spree in Nepal’s Assembly elections, adding that “we are ready to sit with them”. India can hope to derive benefit from the end of status quo since the monarchy, for long, had been hostile to India’s interests. To the extent the mandate for the Maoists can be interpreted as a “vote against Kathmandu”, India can expect fresh opportunities to repair ties which have frequently been strained by mutual suspicions. Unnamed sources state that the election in Nepal had helped achieve two goals that India was keen on – democratization and mainstreaming of Maoists. Source: http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India/India_set_to_do_business_with_Nepal_Maoists/articleshow/2954828.cms
(Reliability: 7.5)
Comment: The final results of the Nepal’s Constituent Assembly election are still unknown. According to the New York Times, no party was expected to win by a landslide; however, the Maoists are doing much better than expected. As of 15 April 2008, the Maoists have won 108 out of 196 directly elected legislative seats.
MDC Sets Conditions For Runoff In Zimbabwe
DOI 15 April 2008
BBC (LONDON)--Reversing an earlier reversal not to participate in a run-off election, a spokesman for Morgan Tsvangirai (Movement for Democratic Change) stated that MDC would participate in a run-off if certain conditions were met: that South African Development Community representatives are present in every polling station. WARNING: Video contains disturbing footage: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/7349669.stm. (Reliability: 8)
15 April 2008
Paraguay Presidential Race: Former Bishop Maintains Lead
DOI 15 April 2008
MERCOPRESS (MONTEVIDEO)--Former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo is still the front-runner in the 20 April presidential election in Paraguay, but his lead over rival candidates has narrowed. Lugo leads with 34.5% of vote intention followed by retired Army general Lino Oviedo with 28.9% and ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar with 28.5%. These percentages are based on 65% electoral roll participation, but if the turnout falls to 40%, Ms Ovelar comes ahead with 34.1% followed by Lugo’s, 31.4% and Oviedo, 27.5%. Lugo draws support from a coalition of center and center left political, grass root and social groupings while Ms Ovelar responds to the Colorado Party of President Nicanor Duarte, a party which has ruled and dominated Paraguayan politics for over six decades, under authoritarian and democratic governments. Source: http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=13156&formato=HTML (Reliability 7.5)
Analysis: Voter participation in the 2003 election was 65%. It is likely that voter turnout will be similar, which would be favorable to Lugo. Since the presidential election does not include a run-off, Lugo is likely to face difficulties with accumulating solid support in congress, preventing him from making any drastic leftist changes. While sympathetic to Chavez and other leftist Latin American leaders, Lugo has tried to distance himself from their overall populist movements (likely a political move), and has opted to focus on internal Paraguayan social issues. (Confidence: 6)
MERCOPRESS (MONTEVIDEO)--Former Catholic Bishop Fernando Lugo is still the front-runner in the 20 April presidential election in Paraguay, but his lead over rival candidates has narrowed. Lugo leads with 34.5% of vote intention followed by retired Army general Lino Oviedo with 28.9% and ruling Colorado Party candidate Blanca Ovelar with 28.5%. These percentages are based on 65% electoral roll participation, but if the turnout falls to 40%, Ms Ovelar comes ahead with 34.1% followed by Lugo’s, 31.4% and Oviedo, 27.5%. Lugo draws support from a coalition of center and center left political, grass root and social groupings while Ms Ovelar responds to the Colorado Party of President Nicanor Duarte, a party which has ruled and dominated Paraguayan politics for over six decades, under authoritarian and democratic governments. Source: http://www.mercopress.com/vernoticia.do?id=13156&formato=HTML (Reliability 7.5)Analysis: Voter participation in the 2003 election was 65%. It is likely that voter turnout will be similar, which would be favorable to Lugo. Since the presidential election does not include a run-off, Lugo is likely to face difficulties with accumulating solid support in congress, preventing him from making any drastic leftist changes. While sympathetic to Chavez and other leftist Latin American leaders, Lugo has tried to distance himself from their overall populist movements (likely a political move), and has opted to focus on internal Paraguayan social issues. (Confidence: 6)
Delayed Ivorian Election Announced, Post-Election Return To Hostilities Likely
DOI
UN NEWS (NEW YORK) – The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) praised the announcement of much delayed presidential elections on 30 November 2008, as "one of the greatest
achievements in the Ivorian peace process since the outbreak of the crisis more than four years ago." Côte d'Ivoire
UN NEWS (NEW YORK) – The United Nations peacekeeping mission in Côte d'Ivoire (UNOCI) praised the announcement of much delayed presidential elections on 30 November 2008, as "one of the greatest
achievements in the Ivorian peace process since the outbreak of the crisis more than four years ago." Analysis: The degree to which the government and rebels have been quietly, but not invisibly, preparing for further hostilities suggest that the peace is very fragile. Under these conditions, and where one or the other side is likely to take umbrage at the outcome of the election, a return to open hostility is likely. The continued presence of UNOCI may provide a deterrent effect initially, until 30 November 2008, but, given UNOCI's inability to monitor or adequately enforce the arms embargo, their presence will be insufficient to prevent violence if either party chooses it. (Confidence: 5)
Zimbabwe Opposition Leader Flees To Botswana
DOI 14 April 2008
THE NATION (NAIROBI)-- Zimbabwe opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai has fled to neighbouring
Botswana Zimbabwe Zimbabwe
The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which beat Mr Mugabe's ruling Zanu PF in parallel parliamentary elections says it believes the lives of its leaders are danger amid signs that the ruling party has embarked on a violent campaign to regain its power. Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200804141860.html (Reliability:9)
The Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), which beat Mr Mugabe's ruling Zanu PF in parallel parliamentary elections says it believes the lives of its leaders are danger amid signs that the ruling party has embarked on a violent campaign to regain its power. Source: http://allafrica.com/stories/printable/200804141860.html (Reliability:9)
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