US Offers USD 3 Million To Support Azerbaijan Presidential Election

DOI 01 May 2008

TREND NEWS (BAKU)—The United States government has allocated USD 3 million to support an open and democratic presidential election in Azerbaijan for October 2008. According to Anne E. Derse, US Ambassador to Azerbaijan, “The funds have been allocated not for any political parties or organizations, but to improve the situation in the sphere of freedom of speech and the election situation in the country.” Derse called upon all political parties in Azerbaijan to participate in the upcoming presidential elections. The ambassador hoped that a conflict among political parties over amendments in the Election Code could be solved before the election. Source: http://news.trendaz.com/index.shtml?show=news&newsid=1189267&lang=EN
(Reliability: 7)

Analysis: The Popular Front, Liberal and Citizen and Development parties, united in the Azadlig bloc, stated that they would boycott the elections if the country could not resolve certain election commission issues. American involvement in the election is likely to trigger charges of fraud and protests from opposition Azerbaijani political parties. (Analytic Confidence: 5)

Western Sahara: Security Council Extends UN Mission For Another Year

DOI 30 April 2008

UN NEWS SERVICE (NEW YORK)- The Security Council extended until 30 April 2009 the mandate of the United Nations mission in Western Sahara (MINURSO), tasked with monitoring the ceasefire between Morocco and the Frente Polisario and organizing a referendum on self-determination. In a unanimously adopted resolution, the Council called on the parties to enter into "a more intensive and substantive phase of negotiations" to resolve their long-running dispute. Morocco holds that its sovereignty over Western Sahara should be recognized, while the Frente Polisario's position is that the Territory's final status should be decided in a referendum that includes independence as an option. Source: http://www0.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=26524&Cr=western&Cr1=sahara (Reliability: 9)

Kosovo To Get New Passports

DOI 01 May 2008

NEW KOSOVA REPORT (SWEDEN)—In July 2008, the Republic of Kosovo will start printing new passports and other personal documents that will replace those that the United Nations Mission In Kosovo (UNMIK) issued during the last nine years. According to Kosovo Interior Minister, Zenun Pajaziti, the documents will have the highest security standards in the region. Since 1999, Kosovo citizens used passports from the former-Yugoslavia, or its two later iterations of Serbia and Montenegro and finally Serbia, as well as travel documents that the UN mission issued. Currently, approximately 40 countries recognize the new Kosovo.
Source: http://www.newkosovareport.com/20080501920/Politics/Kosovo-to-get-new-passports.html (Reliability: 7)

Bosnia To Sign European Union Deal On 26 May

DOI 30 April 2008

BALKAN INSIGHT (BRUSSELS)—Bosnia and Herzegovina will sign a key European Union (EU) pre-membership deal on 26 May 2008. The EU originally planned the deal, known as the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) for the end of April, but it will not be ready until the next council meeting on 26 May. Bosnia passed a series of highly-contested police reforms, a requirement to advance in the EU integration process. The goal of the police reform laws is to bring some harmony to the law-enforcement systems in Bosnia, which previously existed as two virtually independent entities.
Source: http://www.balkaninsight.com/en/main/news/9772/
(Reliability: 8)

Iraq Struggle Unfolds In Peaceful Protest And Violent Attacks in Sadr City

DOI 28 April 2008

NYT (BAGHDAD) - The latest episode in the struggle between the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr and and the Iraqi government unfolded Sunday, 27 April 2008 on the streets of Sadr city, where member of Parliament demonstrated peacefully as while clashes occurred a few blocks away. The mix of peaceful protest and armed attacks is characteristic of the many levels on which the Sadr movement and the government are locked in an all-out fight for political advantage. At stake is the outcome of October 2008 provincial elections in which other Shiite parties in the government stand to lose seats to Mr. Sadr’s supporters. Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/28/world/middleeast/28iraq.html?partner=rssnyt&emc=rss
(Reliability: 8.5)

Comment: Most of the members of Parliament who were demonstrating were not members of the warring Shiite factions; instead they were lobbying to improve the deplorable living conditions in Sadr City, a Baghdad suburb controlled by Moktada al-Sadr's Mahdi Army. American forces have been fighting militiamen there for over a month, resulting in the cessation of basic municipal services such as garbage pickup.

Iranian President's Visit Is A Test For India

DOI 30 April 2008

NYT (NEW DELHI) - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in New Delhi Tuesday, 30 April 2008. An Indian official described the meeting as a "high visibility visit" with a slim chance of tangible outcomes. As the United States presses India to exert greater pressure on Iran to limit it's nuclear program, the government of Indian prime minister Manmohan Singh is under increasing pressure from it's political critics at home to assert it's independence from the US. Iran has become the perfect proxy. Lalit Mansingh stated, "It is good for the government to be seen taking a stand that the US may not like ". Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/30/world/asia/30india.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin
(Reliability: 8.5)

Comment: India would like to maintain good relations with Iran for other reasons as well. Iran is the second largest supplier of oil to energy starved India, as well as potential future supplier of natural gas. India also has a substantial community of Shiite Muslims loyal to the Iranian Ayatollah.

Strikes and Rebel Actions Cut Nigerian Crude Output By Nearly 50%, Record Hikes Almost Certain, Price Relief Unlikley In 2008

DOI 28 April 2008

REUTERS (LONDON) - Exxon Mobil has shut nearly all its Nigerian oil production, totaling around 770,000 barrels per day (bpd), due to a workers' strike. This represents nearly 40 % of total Nigerian output, and comes after a series of attacks this month by militants in the Niger Delta which has shut-in an additional 169,000 bpd from Royal Dutch Shell (8% Nigerian output). These problems in Nigeria, the world's eighth-biggest oil exporter, helped push oil prices to a record high near $120 a barrel on Monday. SOURCE: http://africa.reuters.com/currencies/news/usnBAN843223.html

Analysis: Problems in the Niger Delta are a long way from being resolved, and labour and rebel groups seem to hold the initiative. The consensus from the International Energy Forum meeting in Rome on 20 April 2008 was that tight supply conditions (and hence inflationary pressures on most world economies) would persist for the remainder of 2008. (Analytic Confidence: 8)

Security Council To Hear Zimbabwean Opposition Complaint This Week, Sanctions Motion Likely

DOI 28 April 2008

SOUTH AFRICAN PRESS ASSOCIATION (HARARE)--Zimbabwe's opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Secretary-General Tendai Biti will take MDC's claim of victory in last month's election over President Robert Mugabe to the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) this week (likely Wednesday morning). Biti will almost certainly say that MDC will not participate in an election runoff, according to MDC sources (NFI); as well as request a UN Special Envoy to assist the South African Development Community (SADC) to resolve the increasingly violent issue. Source: http://news.monstersandcritics.com/africa/news/article_1402162.php/Zimbabwe_opposition_to_brief_UN_Security_Council__2nd_Roundup

Analysis: The SADC region is hardening it stance to Mugabe following China's recall of the arms ship AnYue Jin. Last week US Special envoy for Africa, Jendayi Fraser, went on the record that MDC won the election, and in favor of arms sanctions against Zimbabwe, which was echoed by the UK. Despite increasing public pressure to stop supporting Mugabe's regime, China (UNSC Permanent Member, and primary Zimbabwean arms supplier) and South Africa (UNSC President - April) are unlikely to allow an arms embargo to pass. (Analytic Confidence: 6)