BBC (LONDON)--The incompletely implemented 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) is under extreme pressure as Forces Nationales de Liberation (FNL: a major rebel group who are not signatories to the CPA) and government forces clashed around the capital, Bujumbura, for three days this week. Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7354005.stm
Analysis: FNL is the last major obstacle to a comprehensive peace agreement in Burundi. The government and international negotiators have been unable to satisfy FNL demands, or dislodge FNL's presence around Bujumbura. FNL's ability to recruit, organize, arm, and fight suggests leverage over other rebel groups. The perception of increasing FNL strength is likely to draw ex-rebels into the FNL fold, and likely broaden the conflict again. (Analytic Confidence: 6)
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